Tuesday May 8, 2007 - 05:01:56 GMT
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FX-Strategy - www.fx-strategy.com
Daily Analysis for USDCHFPrice:
Resistance: 1.2135 ... 1.2169 ... 1.2188 ... 1.2223
Support: 1.2100 ... 1.2082 ... 1.2057 ... 1.2036
We should now see the 1.2095-1.2105 area support for additional gains back to the 1.2188 high
The 1.2075-91 support area held perfectly and we have seen a recovery back to 1.2133 this morning. While the 1.2095-1.2105 area continues to provide support we will look for the upside to extend further and reach the 1.2188 area once again. This does hold risk of a small pullback but overall we will be looking for gains to reach 1.2223 at least with an eventual target around 1.2275.
With the break above 1.2126 we have reviewed and only above 1.2172 would imply extension of the upside back to the 1.2282-90 area (Max 1.2334) but would look for that to cap. (May 2nd)
With the 1.2075-90 area supporting we can pinpoint the requirements for the downside to resume. First support is around the 1.2095-1.2105 pivot and break here would pressure the 1.2075-90 support again. It is break of this area that would keep the downward momentum intact for a retest of 1.1994-00 initially which should cause a pullback.
We could have seen just a slightly deeper than expected pullback but to generate losses to the 1.1917-44 and 1.1864-78 targets we shall require breach of 1.2100. (May 3rd)
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
We are firming up the revised wave count to label the 1.2188 high as Wave a of Wave iii. The pullback to 1.2089 stalled between the 50% and 58.6% retracement in Wave b and thus we can generate targets for Wave iii.
We note that a 176.4% projection rests at 1.2223 and this should be noted. More convincingly is the 223.6% projection at 1.2275 which is also where Wave c will be equal to Wave a.
Any earlier break below 1.2070 would imply that the 1.2188 high was Wave [b] of Wave [v] and thus we revert to the Wave [v] targets between 1.1944 (61.8%), 1.1917 (66.7%) and 1.1864 (76.4%).
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