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Thursday May 10, 2007 - 05:26:38 GMT
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Daily Analysis for USDCAD

Price: 1.1063

Resistance: 1.1073 ... 1.1092 ... 1.1111 ... 1.1142

Support: 1.1038 ... 1.1005 ... 1.0985 ... 1.0960

Bias: There is risk of consolidation, but while 1.1005-38 continues to support look for gains to 1.1142

Daily Bullish: The 1.1086 target was met and slightly exceeded at 1.1092 from where we have seen a pullback. We note support at 1.1038 and while this holds the upside can resume directly. We should be aware of the risk of a period of consolidation but a break above 1.1067-73 would assist the bullish stance – while above 1.1092 would provide the opportunity for further gains through 1.1111 and to 1.1142 at least. This could cause a pullback but overall we would then be bullish for 1.1161-80.

MT Bullish: Having reached the 1.1004 target we are cautiously looking for a recovery. First major resistance is the corrective peak at 1.1142 but we suspect we shall see higher in the long run. (May 8th)

Daily Bearish: We continue to see support around 1.1035-38 and only below here would begin to threaten the bullish structure I have been using. Still, even then we’d still need a break of 1.1005 and only if seen would the downside extend to 1.0960 and probably the 1.0927 low.

MT Bearish: While we feel the longer term can still see losses the 1.1005 low should hold for now. Thus only breach would cause a retest of the 1.0927 low. (May 9th)


ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS

9th May

The first leg higher has been seen but we feel this will stall around 1.1086 where a minor Wave c will have extended by 261.8%. This should cause a pullback but look for a base to allow test of the old 1.1142 peak.

10th May

We saw a mild breach of the 1.1086 target but from there a pullback and while we could see a complex correction the way appears to be clear for the Wave [iv] to continue. A 61.8% retracement is at 1.1038 and overall we should see follow-through to the wave equality target of the initial rally to 1.1092 which rests at 1.1142 and possibly to the 176.4% projection at 1.1180.

Ian Copsey

 

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