Thursday May 10, 2007 - 05:26:38 GMT
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FX-Strategy - www.fx-strategy.com
Daily Analysis for USDCADPrice:
Resistance: 1.1073 ... 1.1092 ... 1.1111 ... 1.1142
Support: 1.1038 ... 1.1005 ... 1.0985 ... 1.0960
There is risk of consolidation, but while 1.1005-38 continues to support look for gains to 1.1142
The 1.1086 target was met and slightly exceeded at 1.1092 from where we have seen a pullback. We note support at 1.1038 and while this holds the upside can resume directly. We should be aware of the risk of a period of consolidation but a break above 1.1067-73 would assist the bullish stance â€“ while above 1.1092 would provide the opportunity for further gains through 1.1111 and to 1.1142 at least. This could cause a pullback but overall we would then be bullish for 1.1161-80.
Having reached the 1.1004 target we are cautiously looking for a recovery. First major resistance is the corrective peak at 1.1142 but we suspect we shall see higher in the long run. (May 8th)
We continue to see support around 1.1035-38 and only below here would begin to threaten the bullish structure I have been using. Still, even then weâ€™d still need a break of 1.1005 and only if seen would the downside extend to 1.0960 and probably the 1.0927 low.
While we feel the longer term can still see losses the 1.1005 low should hold for now. Thus only breach would cause a retest of the 1.0927 low. (May 9th)
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
The first leg higher has been seen but we feel this will stall around 1.1086 where a minor Wave c will have extended by 261.8%. This should cause a pullback but look for a base to allow test of the old 1.1142 peak.
We saw a mild breach of the 1.1086 target but from there a pullback and while we could see a complex correction the way appears to be clear for the Wave [iv] to continue. A 61.8% retracement is at 1.1038 and overall we should see follow-through to the wave equality target of the initial rally to 1.1092 which rests at 1.1142 and possibly to the 176.4% projection at 1.1180.
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