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Forex Research - Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition

Mellon FX Daily 06:20 EDT

Key Points
• USD firmer in European morning – bias remains to upside.
• US data today and tomorrow will be one factor determining how far this correction runs.
• More strong data out of Australia.
• UK MPC outcome, ECB meeting, US and Canadian trade data feature today.

Market Outlook

The USD has recovered a little further this morning, with the corrective bias still in place and a growing suspicion perhaps that this week’s CB meetings will do little to change this situation. Yesterday’s FOMC statement offered nothing new to the market and today’s likely confirmation by Trichet of the ECB’s intention to raise rates next month should also be well anticipated. If he fails to deliver anything more hawkish than this, EUR-USD would be in danger of falling back to the current main support area at 1.3460-1.3500 – our favoured scenario. Whether such support breaks will also depend upon the tone of tomorrow’s US retail sales data, while today’s US trade number could also influence matters. Below 1.3460 would leave risk down to 1.3340. The UK MPC meeting is also a major focal point today (see below).

Another batch of strong data out of Australia last night (this time relating to the labour market) reinforces the risk of an RBA rate hike in the next few months. The latest CPI numbers may have been soft, but all of the data the RBA would typically monitor for clues about medium-term inflation pressure are strong at the present time. The AUD moved ahead on the news, but is currently facing decent resistance at 0.8340-60 and 0.8380- 0.8400. On a longer view the AUD still looks set to advance further, but in the short-term it could pull back if the USD advances in general.

Day Ahead
Eurozone – the ECB meeting is likely to see policy being left unchanged, but Trichet is likely to send a strong signal about the likelihood of a rate hike in June. Such an outcome should be well anticipated by the market.

UK – a 25bp MPC rate hike is well discounted at today’s MPC announcement and given the fears that have developed this week about the risk of a 50bp move, GBP will most likely soften if only 25bp is delivered. Indeed, GBP has been slipping a little already this morning, perhaps in recognition of this risk. There will also be interest in the tone of the accompanying statement. However, on occasions of recent rate hikes the statement has been restricted to explaining why rates have been raised (typically in non-controversial fashion) as opposed to giving any indications about the future. BoE governor King did say last week that the MPC would review the way it communicates with the market, but in the absence of a fresh approach the market will most probably have to wait until next week’s Inflation Report for firm clues on policy in the second half of the year.

US – the trade deficit has been stabilising in recent months and whether or not this can be sustained will be a potential issue for the USD. Weaker imports (primarily due to softer oil prices) and solid exports have been the main reason for the deficit stabilisation since the middle of last year, although this could be reversed a little at some point given the rebound in oil prices seen in February and March.

Canada – trade data is due and the market will be looking at the export data for an indication of how the external sector has been affecting the economy. The market is on high alert for any news that will boost rate hike expectations, although the trade reports seen so far this year have shown exports weakening after a strong Q4. USD-CAD has shied away from 1.1000, which is current support. A move below 1.1040 would suggest a retest of 1.10, while above 1.1100 would indicate the likelihood of some further short-term stabilisation.

Data/event EDT Consensus*

GB MPC rate announcement 07.00 +25bp
EU ECB meeting outcome 07.45, press conf 08.30 unch
US Trade balance (Mar) 08.30 -$60.0bn
US Initial claims (w/e May 6) 08.30 315k
US Continuing claims (w/e Apr 29) 08.30 2495k last
US Import prices (Apr, nsa) y/y 08.30 +2.8% last
US Imp prices ex-petrol (Apr, nsa) y/y 08.30 +2.9% last
CA Trade balance (Mar) 08.30 C$5.5bn
CA New house prices (Mar) m/m 08.30 +0.5%
US Federal budget (Apr) 13.30 $145bn
GB NIESR GDP (3mths to Apr) q/q 19.01 +0.5% last

Latest data Actual Consensus*
US FOMC meeting outcome unch unch
NZ Unemployment rate (Q1) 3.8% 3.8%
JP M2 plus CDs (Apr) y/y +1.1% +1.1%
JP Bank lending (Apr) y/y +1.0% +1.0% last
NZ PMI manu (Apr) 54.2 56.8R last
AU Employment (Apr) +49.6k +12.5k
AU Unemployment rate (Apr) 4.4% 4.5%
DE WPI (Apr) y/y +2.9% +2.6%
FR Ind prod (Mar) m/m +0.2% +0.3%
FR Manu output (Mar) m/m -0.1% +0.4%
FR Trade balance (Mar) -€1.6bn -€2.7bn
GB HBOS house prices (Apr) m/m +1.1% +0.8%
SE CPI (Apr) y/y +1.9% +1.8%
SE CPI UND1X (Apr) y/y +1.2% +1.1%
SE AMS Unemp rate (Apr, nsa) 3.7% 3.7%
NO CPI (Apr) y/y +0.3% +0.7%
NO CPIX (Apr) y/y +1.4% +1.6%
IT Ind prod (Mar) m/m +0.5% +0.7%
GB Ind prod (Mar) m/m +0.3% +0.4%
GB Manu output (Mar) m/m +0.6% +0.5%
GB Global trade balance (Mar) -£7.04bn -£6.7bn
GB Non-EU trade balance (Mar) -£3.96bn -£4.1bn
* Consensus unless stated

2005, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.
Ian Gunner 44 20 7163 5996 06.40 EDT Monday May 31 2005


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