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Friday May 11, 2007 - 10:19:10 GMT
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Forex Research - Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition

Mellon FX Daily 06:05 EDT

Key Points
• Corrective pressure remains on EUR-JPY/EUR-USD.
• Today’s US data will be significant for the USD.
• JPY set to advance further ahead of next week’s GDP data and with investor risk appetite being reined in.
• Canadian employment, US retail sales and PPI feature today.
• Better news on US budget deficit.

Market Outlook

Corrective forces remain in place, with the support area at 1.3460-1.3500 being put to the test on EUR-USD. This week’s central bank meetings have failed to provide additional support for existing market positioning, which has been against the USD. However, while downside risk remains in place on EURUSD,
this could still be disrupted by any adverse reading on today’s US retail sales data. Any strength on the other hand would suggest further slippage in EUR-USD to 1.3340. Looking ahead to next week, the NY and Philly Fed surveys will be significant in terms of whether they lend support to the improved picture depicted by the recent ISM data.

A key factor behind yesterday’s move was the corrective pressure on EUR-JPY, which is where positioning has been the most excessive. This too could have further to go in the short-term, with the market likely to be slightly apprehensive ahead of next week’s Q1 GDP data in Japan. GDP advanced 1.3% q/q in Q4 and the market is looking for +0.7% q/q in Q1. If this is achieved it would suggest a robust economic backdrop that will lend support to BoJ claims about the likelihood of further tightening, even though such tightening looks unlikely until Q3. The current pullback in higher risk markets is also JPY positive from a short-term perspective. There is risk today and Monday into the 160.00-50 area.

GBP has underperformed the EUR over the past 24 hours, in part because of the fact that there had been some apprehension about a 50bp move at yesterday’s MPC meeting. However, while cable will likely suffer on any further pullback in EUR-USD, there should be some protection against the EUR given that next week’s Inflation Report is still outstanding. Those looking for some extra hawkishness from the MPC may hold on to see what that report unveils. Resistance on EURGBP is at 0.6820-30 ahead of 0.6846.

There was better news on US fundamentals yesterday. While the trade deficit was wider than expected (due in part to higher oil prices boosting imports), the latest data on the fiscal deficit was more encouraging, with the April tax take coming in well ahead of last year. This suggests the likelihood of a further significant narrowing in the deficit for the fiscal year ending September (see chart for the 12-mth cumulative rolling sum).

Day Ahead
Canada – employment numbers are due today and these have been generally strong for the past six months – average m/m rise of 52.7k in Q1 and 42.5k in Q4. 1.1140 is resistance on USD-CAD – supports are at 1.1090 and 1.1040.

US – retail sales (due today) were stronger than expected last month, with upward revisions to February and a solid rise in March. A softer showing is likely on this occasion, but successive months of weakness will be needed to raise doubts about the outlook for consumer spending. PPI is also due today and this has been fairly volatile in recent months. In other words, any strength or weakness may just be seen as volatility rather than an indication of the underlying trend.

Data/event EDT Consensus*

CA Employment (Apr) 07.00 +18k
CA Unemployment rate (Apr) 07.00 6.1%
US Retail sales (Apr) m/m 08.30 +0.4%
US Retail sales ex-autos (Apr) m/m 08.30 +0.5%
US PPI (Apr) m/m 08.30 +0.6%
US PPI core (Apr) m/m 08.30 +0.2%
US Business inventories (Mar) m/m 10.00 +0.3%
US Business sales (Mar) m/m 10.00 +0.4% last

Latest data Actual Consensus*
US Federal budget (Apr) $177.7bn $145bn
GB NIESR GDP (3mths to Apr) q/q +0.7% +0.7%R last
ES CPI (Apr) y/y +2.4% +2.5%
* Consensus unless stated

2005, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.
Ian Gunner 44 20 7163 5996 06.40 EDT Monday May 31 2005


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