Tuesday May 15, 2007 - 03:59:08 GMT
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Daily Analysis for EURJPYPrice:
Resistance: 163.31 ... 163.58 ... 163.97 ... 164.34
Support: 162.80 ... 162.57 ... 162.16 ... 161.90
The immediate structure appears to favor a return to 162.51-80 but should rally from there
We have seen a move to 163.26 and the 163.26-31 area does look like a short term barrier. This risks a move back down to 162.51-80 but I will look for this to support. From here â€“ or a direct break above 163.35 â€“ the risk still remains higher for a return to 163.58 and probably to 163.97 around where we should see a correction. Next resistance is at 164.34.
The break back above 162.30 has been seen and this swings us rather frustratingly back towards a bullish stance. Indeed, a move back above 163.58 would imply gains to 164.34 & probably 165.05. (May 14th)
I feel that while the 163.17 area broke we may have seen a small expanded flat correction which would imply the 163.31 level capping for a move back down to 162.80 and probably a little more to 162.51-62. However, this is the most I can at this point. Thus a stronger bearish stance will require a break here and if seen would extend losses back through 162.16 and to 161.90 at least.
The reversal from 161.07 has frustrated and thus only another reversal back below 161.07 would cause the larger down move to continue. (May 14th)
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
This has been very frustrating but the strong reversal higher suggests that we probably saw a Wave a peak at 163.58 and the 161.07 low was an approximate 61.8% retracement in Wave b. This would imply a Wave equality target at 165.05 which is where Wave â€“v- will have projected by 76.4% and should be the ultimate peak for a larger reversal lower.
The picture still looks the same and it appears merely to be how the short term wave structure develops. The 163.26-31 area looks to have been a small expanded flat in a Wave b of Wave iii and thus wile the 50% retracement at 162.51 supports the risk remains higher.
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