Wednesday May 16, 2007 - 04:48:54 GMT
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Daily Analysis for USDCHFPrice:
Resistance: 1.2157 ... 1.2187 ... 1.2222 ... 1.2266
Support: 1.2125 ... 1.2109 ... 1.2081 ... 1.2048
While 1.2125 holds the upside still looks good for 1.2222 and eventually 1.2266-99
While the wave structure was exceptionally complex the decline to the 1.2126 target was seen and has held well. Indeed, I still see this support as critical â€“ at the most 1.2109 â€“ and therefore the bullish wave structure remains intact. A move above the 1.2157 peak seen after the decline will allow a test of the 1.2185-95 area en route the 1.2222 high which should hold on first test. The ultimate target after a pullback is in the 1.2266-99 area.
The dip to 1.2125 appears to have satisfied the downside and now Iâ€™ll stick with the view of a final rally to the 1.2282 peak and probably the 1.2290-00 area before reversing lower. (May 16th)
The 1.2126 target support held perfectly. This now provides the break to the downside although we should also keep in mind the 1.2109 deeper support but Iâ€™m not too confident of this one now. Thus a break below this level would trigger losses down to 1.2081 and probably then to the 1.2030-48 area. Watch this as while it holds we could still see a larger sideways consolidation. Breach retests the 1.1994 low.
While 1.2125 holds I still look for a move to 1.2280-00 but from there â€“ or direct breach of 1.2125 â€“ the direction will reverse for a test of the 1.1865-78 area at least. (May 16th)
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
With Fridayâ€™s failure to break up to the 1.2226-30 area the wave count needs to be adjusted just a touch to call the Wave â€“ii- low at 1.2029 and with the 1.2222 high as Wave-iii- we can measure a 50% retracement at 1.2126 and at most the 58.6% retracement at 1.2109.
This should then complete Wave â€“iv- and we can then generate targets for Wave â€“v- that should be in the 50%-58.6% retracement range in daily Wave [iv] between 1.2290-1.2334.
Only a break below 1.2100-10 would imply a possible triangle and return to 1.2048.
It looks like the 50% retracement at 1.2126 has formed Wave â€“iv- & we can now project targets between 1.2266-99 for Wave â€“v-
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