Thursday May 17, 2007 - 04:19:05 GMT
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Daily Analysis for EURUSDPrice:
Resistance: 1.3530 ... 1.3552 ... 1.3587 ... 1.3608
Support: 1.3500 ... 1.3480 ... 1.3460 ... 1.3440
While 1.3545-52 caps there is risk of a retest of the 1.3460-65 area which should hold today
The 1.3608 high continued to hold and from there we have seen quite a strong reversal lower. I continue to hold a cautious bearish stance but feel there is a risk of a retest of 1.3460-65 again. Thus from 1.3465 or a direct break above 1.3555 we should see opportunities to buy. From we should only see a move back to 1.3530-50. A direct break above 1.3555 would cause a move to the 1.3587 area and probably back above 1.3608 to 1.3650-81.
While we have seen a break above 1.3585-90 I am still cautious until the 1.3626 peak is broken. If seen then we shall revisit 1.3681 and probably further to 1.3788 at least and probably 1.3932. (May 16th)
As preferred the break back below 1.3580 triggered sharp losses back to 1.3515-20 and just below. Indeed, while a small pullback remains below 1.3545-52 I feel there can be one more leg lower to retest the 1.3465 area but this is expected to hold. Thus only below 1.3460 would keep the downward momentum intact for 1.3440 and 1.3370.
Losses have been developing broadly in line with expectations and there should be one more set of losses to be seen that on a break below 1.3441-61 should see the decline reach 1.3253-73. (May 14th)
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
I now label the 1.3608 high as Wave â€“x- and it looks as if we are seeing Wave â€“a- lower develop. We have seen three waves to 1.3503 and while a 50%-58.6% retracement from this low in minor Wave iv remains below 1.3545-52 Iâ€™ll be looking for the Wave v to reach back to the 1.3460-70 area once again.
This should be Wave â€“a- of a final ABC decline and we then need see Wave â€“b- develop before the move towards the favored 1.3253-73 target area.
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