Friday May 18, 2007 - 03:13:06 GMT
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Daily Analysis for GBPUSDPrice:
Resistance: 1.9760 ... 1.9800 ... 1.9819 ... 1.9845
Support: 1.9731 ... 1.9711 ... 1.9676 ... 1.9657
While 1.9710-30 supports there should be a correction back to the 1.9790-00 area
The correction stalled just below the 1.9800 resistance and triggered the anticipated losses to the 1.9720-40 area. I do see a small risk this may extend towards 1.9710 but overall the direction today should be higher in a correction. Back above 1.9760 will assist but we should find the recovery stalls around the 1.9790-00 area again â€“ at most 1.9820. Thus a stronger bullish stance will require a break above 1.9820. This would allow follow-through to 1.9840-45 and if this breaks then 1.9873.
Only a move above 1.9880 would reverse the overall direction for a return to 1.9997 and alter the 2.0073 & 2.0131 high although the MT would then suggest gains all the way to 2.0505. (May 16th)
We have seen the anticipated losses to the 1.9720-40 area and while 1.9760 caps we may just see this extend to 1.9710-20. However, I think thatâ€™s it for today. Thus only below 1.9700 would maintain the downward momentum for 1.9657 at least. Care this could cause a pullback. Next support is at 1.9622 and then 1.9575.
The structure is being tested but while the 1.9880 level caps the downside remains intact and should cause an initial move to 1.9745-60 and after a pullback to the 1.9657-76 area at least and probably 1.9575. (May 16th)
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
Losses seen and I feel we have only seen the end of minor Wave iii at 1.9755. This should mean a 50%-58.6% correction at 1.9810-20 should cap for a Wave v to decline to the 1.9720-40 area to complete a new Wave a. Then look for a correction in Wave b before a final decline in Wave c to 1.9657 (daily 50% retracement) at least and possibly 1.9575 (daily 58.6% correction.)
The 1.9731 low (or possible small extension to 1.9710) should provide the low in Wave a which should be followed by a Wave b remaining below 1.9800-20 again to take price down to the 1.9657 minimum target and probably the 1.9575 level.
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