User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Monday May 21, 2007 - 10:43:38 GMT
Lloyds TSB Financial Markets -

Share This Story:
| | Email

Forex Market News - Economics Weekly - Did the MPC discuss a 50bp hike in May?

Economics Weekly:

Did the MPC discuss a 50bp hike in May?

• The BoE Inflation Report last week supported the prevailing market view that another hike in Bank rate to 5.75% is on the cards later this year. However, while we acknowledge the risk of another 0.25% hike is significant, we remain of the view that a peak of 5.50% is still possible.

• It could be a volatile morning for financial markets on Wednesday. The minutes of the May MPC meeting will be anxiously awaited to further assess the likelihood and also possible timing of any hike later this year. Financial markets will be particularly keen to view the voting pattern and whether the minutes reveal any discussion of a 50bp hike. Anything less than an unanimous vote could elicit strong reaction as would a vote or mention of a 50bp rise. UK data this week are headed by the 2nd estimate of Q1 gdp on Friday. We expect growth of 0.7% to be confirmed, but a downward revision is possible after a disappointing set of recent trade figures.

• The strong prospect of further hikes in euro zone interest rates this year should be underlined again this week by data from Germany. The influential IFO business sentiment index is forecast to have climbed to 109.0 in May, from 108.6 in April - the highest since records for a unified Germany began in 1991. Consumer confidence, on Friday, may also have improved in June.

• It is a relatively quiet week for US economic data, but some key releases will draw strong attention. Durable goods orders, on Thursday, are forecast to show another strong rise in April, reflecting a pick-up in business confidence. However, housing market sales data on Thursday and Friday could provoke most market reaction, given the volatile swings in recent months.

UK data this week are likely to be overshadowed by the minutes of the May MPC meeting on Wednesday. After the detail and analysis of the BoE Q2 Inflation Report last week, financial markets will be keen to see how the MPC members actually voted earlier this month. The consensus view is that the decision to raise Bank rate by 0.25% in May to 5.50% was unanimous (9-0) and a different outcome could trigger a strong reaction. It may prove more significant if there was also discussion of a larger hike. We believe there is a small risk that a member may have voted for a 50bp rise. However, given the MPC's recent voting history, the possibility of a dissenter arguing for no change in interest rates should also not be ruled out. Although the meeting minutes are unlikely to change the prevailing market view that Bank rate will rise again this year, they could offer some clues of the possible timing, particularly if we get a 50bp vote. However, we currently remain of the view that rates could peak at 5.50% this year.

Data this week are expected to show UK economic growth is likely to average above its long-run average again in 2007, keeping upward pressure on inflation. On Monday, M4 money supply growth is forecast to have remained above 12% in the year to April and mortgage lending data from the BBA and CML are likely to have stayed robust. The CBI Industrial trends survey, on Thursday, should show the headline orders balance remained positive for the fourth consecutive month in May, the longest such sequence for over a decade. The second estimate of Q1 2007 gdp is published on Friday and should confirm growth of 0.7% for the third successive quarter and of 2.8% on an annual basis. There is a risk of a downward revision, to 0.6%, reflecting a weak recent set of UK external trade data.

The ECB have clearly signalled that interest rates will rise to 4.0% at their next meeting in June. The uncertainty for financial markets now surrounds the outlook for the rest of the year. Economic data this week are likely to support the view that another hike to 4.25% is a strong possibility. We look for this to take place in the final quarter, possibly at the October ECB meeting. The German IFO survey will attract most attention this week and may have edged to a record high in May, topping 108.7 set in December 2006.

It is a quiet week for economic data from the US, but the latest home sales data will draw significant attention on Thursday and Friday. There is risk of a strong market reaction should the outturns of existing and new homes sales in April differ significantly from the market consensus. US Fed chairman Bernanke and US treasury secretary Paulson take part in a strategic economic summit with Chinese officials this week.

Jeavon Lolay, Senior Economist
Lloyds TSB Bank,
Financial Markets
Faryners House,
25 Monument,
London EC3R 8BQ
0207 283 - 1000

Any documentation, reports, correspondence or other material or information in whatever form be it electronic, textual or otherwise is based on sources believed to be reliable, however neither the Bank nor its directors, officers or employees warrant accuracy, completeness or otherwise, or accept responsibility for any error, omission or other inaccuracy, or for any consequences arising from any reliance upon such information. The facts and data contained are not, and should under no circumstances be treated as an offer or solicitation to offer, to buy or sell any product, nor are they intended to be a substitute for commercial judgement or professional or legal advice, and you should not act in reliance upon any of the facts and data contained, without first obtaining professional advice relevant to your circumstances. Expressions of opinion may be subject to change without notice. Although warrants and/or derivative instruments can be utilised for the management of investment risk, some of these products are unsuitable for many investors. The facts and data contained are therefore not intended for the use of private customers (as defined by the FSA Handbook) of Lloyds TSB Bank plc. Lloyds TSB Bank plc is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority and is a signatory to the Banking Codes, and represents only the Scottish Widows and Lloyds TSB Marketing Group for life assurance, pension and investment business.


Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."

Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 10 Sep 2018
AA 08:30 GB- GDP, Trade, Output
Tue 11 Sep 2018
AA 08:30 GB- Employment Decision
A 09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
Wed 12 Sep 2018
A 12:30 US- PPI
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
A 18:00 US- Beige Book
Thu 13 Sep 2018
A 1:30 AU- Employment
AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
AA 11:45 EZ- European Central Bank Decision
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
AA 12:30 US- CPI
Fri 14 Sep 2018
A 08:30 GB- GDP
AA 12:30 US- Retail Sales
A 13:15 US- Industrial Production
AA 14:00 US- prelim University of Michigan

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner,

Global-View Affiliate Program

We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.

Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.

Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.

Contact us

Start trading with forex broker Markets Cube

Max McKegg's Daily Forex Trading Forecasts

Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.

Request a TRIAL of Max's Forex Service.


Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map

Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.



By using this website, you are agreeing to our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use, and Cookie Policy

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105