Tuesday May 22, 2007 - 04:01:01 GMT
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Daily Analysis for AUDUSDPrice:
Resistance: 0.8229 ... 0.8255 ... 0.8277 ... 0.8294
Support: 0.8180 ... 0.8169 ... 0.8143 ... 0.8130
Watching support at 0.8169-80 and resistance at 0.8230
Losses were seen to the 0.8180 support but we also need to be aware of the risk of a move to 0.8169. Thus before getting too bullish Iâ€™d prefer to see breach of a key resistance level. This really is at this morningâ€™s 0.8229 high and a move above here should then extend the upside towards 0.8255 and probably the 0.8277 resistance â€“ max 0.8294.
Continued slippage seen though this has not yet been decisive. Thus until 0.8169 breaks there is still a chance of a pullback to 0.8277-94. A larger move higher needs break here and would then see 0.8351-90. (May 22nd)
We have seen the downside stall at the top end of the 0.8169-80 support area. I would normally look for a move up to 0.8277 but the pullback this morning is deep and it is suggesting that we could see this extend to 0.8169. However, if we are to see additional losses we need to see breach of this corrective low and if seen would extend losses to 0.8130 at least. Care â€“ only below here keeps the downward momentum intact.
Losses have proceeded but have not yet broken the 0.8169 low yet. This is required to keep the momentum intact for 0.8130 at least and I suspect the 0.8035-46 area which should complete the bearish correction. (May 22nd)
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
It seems the 0.8202 was the low in Wave â€“a- although we should still keep the 0.8169-80 area in mind still. Overall I still prefer a scenario calling for a decline to the daily 50% correction around 0.8035. However, before that we should be aware of the risk of a retracement back to the 50%-61.8% correction in Wave â€“b- at 0.8277-94.
No real change to the expectation of losses to the daily 50% retracement at 0.8035 and the only thing we need to work out is whether this occurs directly or we should see a move back to 0.8277-94.
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