User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Thursday May 24, 2007 - 20:35:49 GMT -

Share This Story:
| | Email

Forex - Japanese Yen: Watch Out for Follow through in Asia

DailyFX Fundamentals 05-24-07

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist of

• Dollar: Dow Reverses, Taking Everything Down With it
• Japanese Yen: Watch Out for Follow through in Asia
• Commodity Currencies Sell-Off as Gold and Oil Prices Turn

Dollar: Dow Reverses, Taking Everything Down With it

The US dollar is stronger against ever major currency with exception of the Japanese Yen. Although it would be easy to attribute the dollar’s rally today to the 16 percent rise in new home sales and the sharp increase in durable goods orders excluding transportation, that attribution would not be entirely accurate. If you took a closer look at the intraday price charts, the EUR/USD ended the US session not far from the level it traded at between 8:30am and 10:00am EST. What is driving the move lower in the EUR/USD and pairs like the AUD/USD and NZD/USD is actually carry trade liquidation. Liquidation out of AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY, EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY has inflicted pain onto the majors. The sell-off was triggered by a sharp intraday reversal in the US stock market. Having been up as much as 100 points after the housing numbers, the Dow ended the day down 84 points. It took the market some time to realize that the strong housing numbers released this morning contained underlying weakness. Even though new home sales jumped 16 percent in the month of April, the biggest rise in 14 years, the median price of homes dropped 10.9 percent, the largest on record. This means that builders, especially corporate ones are in a rush to recoup their investments by having a fire sale on inventory. We already know that they are very pessimistic about the outlook for the housing market and with even more inventory coming onto the market within the next year (here in NY, there are new buildings construction happening on almost every block), these builders must feel a strong urgency to sell. This makes tomorrow’s existing home sale figures exceptionally important. Existing home owners are generally in less of a rush to sell, can be more price sensitive and able to wait longer for a favorable offer than builders. Should existing home sales also increase strongly, then the housing market may be on its way to recovery. If it sees a sharp decrease in sales, then trouble could be ahead. Durable goods were less ambiguous as the upward revisions to the headline figure last month offset the smaller than expected rise this month. Orders excluding transportation also doubled expectations, indicating that the weak dollar is benefiting the sector as a whole. With no clear direction on where the economy is headed, the one thing that is clear is that the reversal in the Dow is having a big impact on the currency market and should stocks continue to fall, then we could see the crosses lead to more weakness in the majors.

Euro: IFO in line, Saves the Euro from a Major Decline

The Euro was left out of the big moves today as the currency remained trapped within a 50 pip trading range against the US dollar. The much awaited German IFO report proved to be a non-event with business sentiment holding steady in the month of May. Even though the assessment of current conditions was downgraded slightly, businesses were more optimistic about conditions ahead. The lofty levels of the German business sentiment index and the ZEW analyst sentiment survey continue to illustrate the region’s economic resilience. The prospect of another rate hike by the ECB has limited any major decline in the currency. Meanwhile Swiss employment numbers were also released this morning. The level of employment continues to grow with the employment rate ticking up from 1.6 to 1.8 percent. A healthy labor market and strong retail sales should help to boost the Swiss KoF leading indicators for the month of May while the weak franc should have helped to boost trade in the month of April.

British Pound: Still Holding Strong Thanks to the MPC Minutes
The British pound held up exceptionally well despite broad dollar strength. With the lack of any meaningful economic data, the currency is riding on the coattails of yesterday’s hawkish monetary policy meeting minutes. With the minutes alluding to the possibility of another interest rate hike in July or August, traders have reversed a good portion of their pound shorts. This reflects the increasing number of economists now calling for 6.00 percent rates by year end. That may be a bit optimistic given recent retail sales and inflation data. The only piece of UK data released today was the CBI Distributive Trades Survey for the month of May, which increased from +5 to +2. Tomorrow we have UK GDP due for release. There are no major changes expected to be made to the second release of first quarter GDP.

Japanese Yen: Watch Out for Follow through in Asia

The Japanese Yen continued to weaken significantly on the weight of carry trade liquidation. Yesterday we warned that a 100 point move lower in the Dow would have a broad sweeping impact on these interest rate plays. Today, even though the Dow is not down 100 points, it did move 180 points intraday. If the exodus out of stocks continues in Asia, then the sell-off that we have seen in the Yen crosses today could continue. The only piece of data released last night was the trade balance. A disappointment in the trade surplus was offset by a jump in the seasonal balance in the month of April. Tomorrow we have consumer prices due for release. The rise in the CGPI index suggests that we could see stronger inflation growth, which would help to exacerbate the moves lower in the yen crosses.

Commodity Currencies Sell-Off as Gold and Oil Prices Turn

The Australian, New Zealand and Canadian dollars are all lower across the board. A turn in the commodity markets and liquidation out of these high yielding assets has contributed to the sell-off. Last night, the New Zealand trade surplus turned into a deficit. As we have warned, the strong level of the Kiwi and weakness in commodity prices (like cattle) has taken a big bite out of exports. Even though there are no more economic data due for release from the region this week, the commodity currencies will be a big focus with Canada set to decide on interest rates. The CD Howe Institute of Canada recommended today that the central bank raise rates by 25bp to 4.50 percent next week. We think that this is unlikely because even though the economy has been performing very well, the central bank will not want to risk spurring more speculation and demand for their currency by raising rates as it would assure the Canadian dollar’s move to parity.


Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."

Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Tue 17 July 2018
AA 08:30 GB- Employment
A 13:15 US- Industrial Production
AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony
Wed 18 July 2018
AA 08:30 GB- CPI
A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony
Thu 19 July 2018
AA 1:30 AU- Employment
AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Jun 2018
A 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner,

Global-View Affiliate Program

We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.

Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.

Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.

Contact us

Start trading with forex broker Markets Cube

Max McKegg's Daily Forex Trading Forecasts

Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.

Request a TRIAL of Max's Forex Service.


Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map

Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.



By using this website, you are agreeing to our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use, and Cookie Policy

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105