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Tuesday May 29, 2007 - 10:57:19 GMT
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Forex Research - Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition

Mellon FX Daily 06:30 EDT

Key Points
• JPY weaker in Europe after being supported in Asia by stronger than expected Japanese data.
• EUR-USD higher, but risk remains to the downside ahead of this week’s key US releases.
• BoC policy announcement, US consumer confidence and house prices feature today.

Market Outlook

Japanese labour market and consumer spending data was generally stronger than expected, leaving a softer tone to the main JPY crosses in Asia, but this was reversed in Europe. The data helped to push up rate expectations a little further, with the Mar 2008 interest rate future pushing up to 1.095% (highest since mid-Jan) from 1.07% on Monday. However, there will need to be more rate hike speculation than this to stoke up interest in the FX market, where the focus remains primarily on the health of global markets and investor risk appetites.

EUR-JPY in particular was boosted in Europe this morning by the stronger EUR-USD, with the latter being aided by some hawkish comments from Bundesbank president Weber. He said that the ECB would not shy away from moving policy into restrictive territory if this was deemed necessary to fight inflation. However, there is nothing particularly new in this type of rhetoric from the typically hawkish Weber. Momentum against the JPY had been fading last week and while any attempts at JPY recovery seem to be met with fresh selling, certain technical levels need to break to re-establish some fresh upside momentum on the main JPY crosses. The recent high 164.00 on EUR-JPY is the big level in this regard. Near-term downside is favoured until this breaks.

EUR-USD upside looks like remaining limited due to the combination of excessive long positioning (still in place) and a sense that the US economy is on the mend. It is a key week ahead in this regard as the market will be looking at Friday’s manufacturing ISM and next Monday’s non-manufacturing ISM to see whether this improvement in sentiment is warranted. Friday’s employment report will also be significant. Risk remains down to 1.3340 ahead of Friday’s data.

Day Ahead
Canada – a Bank of Canada rate hike is unlikely today but the market will be looking at the statement for clues about future policy. Most Canadian data has been strong over the past month or so apart from employment. On May 21, BoC governor Dodge noted the recent uptick in CPI and said they would be watching CPI closely over coming months, adding that they did not base policy on one number. In the April 24 post-meeting statement, they noted that CPI had been higher than expected, that the economy had been performing just above its production capacity and that the risks to their inflation projections now had a “slight tilt to the upside”. The weakness of the US economy was noted as an offset to the strength in Canadian domestic demand. Key this week will be how this tweaked, if at all. Removing the word ‘slight’ from ‘slight tilt to the upside’ and ‘just’ from ‘just above production capacity’ would be examples of such modifications, although a more meaningful rate hike signal may be required to boost the CAD further after recent gains. Whether the CAD is mentioned in the statement will also be significant. Support on USD-CAD is at 1.0750-75, while above 1.0860-70 would leave corrective risk back up to 1.0930- 50.

US – Conference Board consumer confidence is due today and the market will be keen to see whether the main index can bounce back from the eight month low recorded last month. Higher energy prices have once again been weighing on sentiment. The jobs components of the survey will also be monitored for evidence of labour market improvement. House price data is also due and further weakness looks likely in the short-term as the market continues to adjust to the lower level of demand.

Data/event EDT Consensus*

DE CPI (May, prel) m/m n/a +0.2%
US Chain store sls (w/e May 26) w/w 07.45 -1.5% last
US Redbook sls (w/e May 26) m/m 08.55 +2.2% last
CA BoC policy announcement 09.00 unch
US S&P/CS house prices (Mar) y/y 09.00 -1.0% last
US Consumer confidence (May) 10.00 105.0
US ABC consumer conf (w/e May 27) 17.00 -9 last
JP Ind prod (Apr, prel) m/m 19.50 +0.5%
AU Retail trade (Apr) m/m 21.30 +0.5%

Latest data Actual Consensus*
JP CSPI (Apr) y/y +1.1% +0.6%
SE Consumer confidence (May) 19.7 21.8
SE Manufacturing confidence (May) 9 11
JP Unemployment rate (Apr) 3.8% 4.0%
JP Job-to-applicants ratio (Apr) 1.05 1.03
JP Overall PCE (Apr) y/y +1.1% +0.2%
JP Retail sales (Apr) m/m +0.4% +0.3%
SE Retail sales (Apr) m/m +0.1% +1.2%
EU Current account (Mar) €5.4bn -€3.7bnR last
GB BBA mort approvals (Apr, nsa) y/y +1% -12% last
ZA GDP (Q1) q/q saar +4.7% +4.9%
* Consensus unless stated

©2007, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.
Ian Gunner 44 20 7163 5996 06.40 EDT Monday May 31 2005


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