Wednesday May 30, 2007 - 03:33:20 GMT
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Daily Analysis for GBPUSDPrice:
Resistance: 1.9825 ... 1.9842 ... 1.9877 ... 1.9898
Support: 1.9778 ... 1.9730 ... 1.9705 ... 1.9675
Care â€“ I still see a risk of a move to 1.9921-40 before lower â€“ only below 1.9770 sees direct losses
Well, that was a whippy day but didnâ€™t see too much of a strong move in either direction. I still note the 1.9778-89 area remains intact and this may well mean we need a move above 1.9900 before the peak is seen. Take caution. Back above 1.9825 and then 1.9840-45 would generate further upward momentum for yesterdayâ€™s 1.9898 high and through to the 1.9921-40 area (max 1.9962) before peaking.
Still no real change but before getting too bullish we really need a move above 1.9940-62. Only if seen would the upside extend directly to 2.0073 and 2.0131. (May 30th)
While we saw a minor new high the correction from there has not been too strong. Indeed I can see support around 1.9778-89 and while this holds there does seem to be an argument for a further attempt higher. Thus only a break of this support would generate stronger losses. Next support is at 1.9730 â€“ care â€“ and then down to the 1.9675 low. It should hold on first test but also take note of 1.9657.
We have seen a test of the 1.9675 target but I feel there should be more. While 1.9774-97 this can happen more directly. Below 1.9657 would see a move to the favored 1.9545-75 target support before higher. (May 22nd)
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
The marginal peak seen at 1.9898 is rather confusing but I suspect this may have been a small Wave v to complete Wave a. A 61.8%-66.7% retracement in Wave b comes in around 1.9775-84 and thus while this holds there is still risk of a move to a new high in Wave c. We should still note the 61.8%-66.7% retracement in Wave â€“x- around 1.9921-40 though a wave equality target of wave a does suggest 1.9962.
Thus the top is a little unclear but only below 1.9775 would cause a direct resumption in the downside and until then a move to the 1.9921-62 area is possible.
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