User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Monday June 4, 2007 - 10:57:34 GMT
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange -

Share This Story:
| | Email

Forex Research - Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition

Mellon FX Daily 06:10 EDT

Key Points
• US data adds to positive USD arguments, leaving overall downside risk for EUR-USD.
• However, EUR should retain support ahead of ECB meeting – likewise for GBP ahead of MPC.
• EUR-SEK approaching decent resistance area.
• Quiet data schedule today.

Market Outlook

EUR-USD managed to stabilise fairly quickly after the sell-off seen following Friday’s ISM release and has continued to recover in Europe this morning, with the prospect of Wednesday’s ECB meeting the most likely supporting factor. While a 25bp rate hike is fully priced in, the market is wary of a hawkish message from Trichet and this should maintain some support for the EUR until the event is out of the way. However, it is not clear that Trichet will be keen on advancing money market hawkishness any further for the time being, so there is downside risk for EUR-USD in the second half of the week, given the improving situation in the US.

There were two themes from last week’s US data. One is that it is still too early to call a bottom in the US housing market, with strength in new home sales being offset by disappointments in the existing and pending home sales releases. The other was the picture of recovery developing in the manufacturing sector.

This not only related to the solid ISM number released on Friday, but also to the weak Q1 GDP number. The weakness of Q1 GDP was driven by weaker inventories, which actually lent credibility to the notion of a manufacturing rebound in Q2 (higher ISM) as inventories are rebuilt. Whether this is sustained is another matter, but the market will continue to look more favourably on the prospects for US economic activity in the short-term. The status of tomorrow’s non-manufacturing ISM data will also be important in this regard.

This improved US economic backdrop should continue to weigh on EUR-USD in the short-term, especially in light of the hefty long EUR-USD positioning still in place. Latest IMM positioning data for last Tuesday showed that net longs for specs were at 94,319, down only marginally from the 95,287 seen the previous week. While this is well off the heights of the middle of May (119,538), it remains uncomfortably high and liquidation risk is still in place. Our initial target of 1.3340 remains valid for the short-term.

The UK MPC is likely to leave rates unchanged at Thursday’s meeting, but the market will carry uncertainty about the outcome and this should support GBP until then. However, unchanged rates would leave cable vulnerable at the end of the week. Resistance is at 1.9900 (May 23 and 29 highs) and support is at 1.9730.

EUR-SEK has remained at higher levels following the damage to sentiment inflicted by last week’s retail sales and GDP data. With the ECB meeting firmly in the market’s sights there is unlikely to be any respite in the early part of this week. However, if as seems likely, the ECB fails to advance hawkish money market expectations any further, there should be a pullback, so any further cross strength over the next day or two could provide a selling opportunity. The 9.36-9.39 area has been the limit of upmoves on other occasions over the past nine months or so and should act as reasonable resistance.

Day Ahead
US – factory orders data will show whether there have been any revisions to the durable orders data released on May 24, which was reasonably solid – ex-transport orders up 1.5% m/m.

UK – the BRC retail sales survey for May is due tonight and if the CBI data is any guide it should show sales holding up reasonably well. However, the two surveys were not well correlated in April, when the CBI survey was very strong (+44% of retailers reporting higher y/y sales volumes) and BRC sales values were a tepid +2.4% y/y.

Data/event EDT Consensus*

Market holiday – New Zealand, Ireland
TR CPI (May) y/y 09.30 +9.7%
US Factory orders (Apr) m/m 10.00 +0.7%
GB BRC retail survey (May) y/y 19.01 +2.4% last
AU Current account (Q1) 21.30 -A$14.8bn
AU Building approvals (Apr) m/m 21.30 +2.5%

Latest data Actual Consensus*
JP Capital spending (Q1) y/y +13.6% +10.1%
JP Monetary base (May) y/y -5.7% -6.1%
AU ANZ job ads (May) m/m +10.3% +3.5% last
NO PMI manu (May) 64.9 63.3 last
EU PPI (Apr) y/y +2.4% +2.3%
* Consensus unless stated

©2007, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.
Ian Gunner 44 20 7163 5996 06.40 EDT Monday May 31 2005


Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."

Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 23 July 2018
A 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
Tue 24 July 2018
AFlash PMIs
Wed 25 July 2018
A 08:00 DE- IFO Survey
A 14:00 US- New Homes Sales
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 26 July 2018
AA 11:45 EZ- European Central Bank Decision
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
A 12:30 US- Durable Goods
Fri 27 July 2018
AA 12:30 US- GDP
A 14:00 US- Final University of Michigan

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner,

Global-View Affiliate Program

We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.

Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.

Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.

Contact us

Start trading with forex broker Markets Cube

Max McKegg's Daily Forex Trading Forecasts

Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.

Request a TRIAL of Max's Forex Service.


Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map

Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.



By using this website, you are agreeing to our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use, and Cookie Policy

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105