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Friday August 27, 2004 - 09:48:28 GMT
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US OPEN MARKET POINTS 08-27-04

US OPEN MARKET POINTS 08-27-04
Published By: Boris Schlossberg, Fundamental Analyst

Flowing from America
Weak eco data from Japan tonight but no one seems to care as the pair probes the 109 handle before bouncing back to 109.50. Jobless rate (4.9% vs. 4.6% expected), workers household spending (-2.5% vs. 2.3% expected) and Tokyo CPI (-0.1% vs. 0.0%) all print worse than market consensus as evidence grows that Japan’s 2nd quarter slowdown may be more serious than many analysts believe. Much like their American counterparts Japanese companies started to hire more part-time workers, providing them with far less benefits which in turn depresses wages, restrains spending and leads to persistent deflation. We’ve argued for a long time that US faces the same set of problems and believe that Japan’s present will be US’s future except in much worse form.

Tonight however, the dealer’s attention is on capital flows as the most recent Reuters Asset Allocation survey suggests that Japanese institutional investors are looking to pare their weightings of U.S. bonds, preferring instead Japanese domestic instruments. According to the release the weighting of U.S. bonds was cut to 30.4% - the lowest since the inception of the survey, while domestic (Japanese) stocks were upped to 24.3%, the highest since September '95. Yesterday Dennis Gartman noted that the latest US 2 year auction was 44% bought by “indirect bidders” namely foreign central banks. He wrote, “The dollar bears have asked ‘What if the foreign buyers boycott? What then?’ Our response is simply, ‘Well that has not happened thus far, so we'll not worry about it now:’”. The market seems to be saying that the time to worry is indeed right now. Given the US’s atrocious Current Account deficit and sagging equity markets, an outflow of foreign capital will be devastating for the dollar negating any benefit of an upturn in the economy as the world starts to fear America’s ever growing balance sheet problems.

Key Overnight Developments
- GBP UK GDP as expected 0.9% q/q 3.7% y/y as consumers and manufacturers spending strong BOE Nov. hike seems assured
FX Spot Overnight
- EUR trades tight 2050-2090 as IFO has little impact
- JPY breaks 110 but rumors of exporter offers keep it contained
- GBP whipsawed by poor BBA data vs. good CBI data holds 7900 but can’t take 8000
- CHF spikes to 2780 off tepid employment but trades down on euro firmness

Upcoming Events
12:30GMT – (8:30 AM EST) USD GDP Annualized (Q2 Prelim) Expected at 2.8%, Previous 3.0%
12:30GMT – (8:30 AM EST) USD GDP Price Deflator (Q2 Prelim) Expected at 3.2%, Previous 3.2%
12:30GMT – (8:30 AM EST) USD Personal Consumption (Q2 Prelim) Expected at 1.3%, Previous 1.0%
14:00GMT – (10:00 AM EST) USD U Michigan Confidence (Aug Final) Expected at 94, Previous 94
Greenspan to Give Opening Remarks At Fed Symposium in Wyoming 14:00 GMT (10:00 AM)

 

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Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account
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15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP
Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes
Mon 25 Dec
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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity

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