User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Monday June 4, 2007 - 21:28:09 GMT
DailyFX.com - www.dailyfx.com

Share This Story:
| | Email

Forex - Euro: Chance for Neutral Comments from Trichet after June Rate Hike?

DailyFX Fundamentals 06-04-07

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist

• US Dollar: Empty Rally in the Dow will keep Federal Reserve on Hold
• Euro: Chance for Neutral Comments from Trichet after June Rate Hike?
• Strong Gains Continued to be Seen in the Australian, New Zealand and Canadian Dollars

US Dollar: Empty Rally in the Dow will keep Federal Reserve on Hold

To the relief of carry and stock traders around the world, what could have been a very painful trading day ended up being a good one. With the Shanghai stock index down 8 percent overnight, traders knew that there was a strong risk of a sharp move lower in both the yen crosses and the Dow. In fact, carry trades began to sell-off even before the US stock market opened, but when the stock market refused to fall, the fear that we would have another 3.3 percent down day in the Dow quickly abated. Carry traders jumped right back into the markets as they realized that the lifespan of their trades would be extended for at least one more day. Although we believe that carry and stock traders are simply buying time before the inevitable decline, the resilience of the stock market is nothing short of impressive. Earning season is over so it will be interesting to see what is left to fuel the rally in US stocks. It is not a stretch to say that the equity market is aiming for the moon with little fundamental backing. GDP growth of 0.6 percent is hardly reflective of a growing economy. This type of empty rally is exactly what will keep the Federal Reserve on hold for the remainder of the year. If they even hinted that they are considering a rate cut, we could easily see 14,000 in the Dow. Factory orders fell short of expectations in the month of April, but were revised sharply higher in March. Service sector ISM is due for release tomorrow along with speeches by Bernanke and Paulson. Although both of these are very important, the currency market will continue to take its cue from the stock market. The upcoming ECB interest rate decision on Wednesday should keep the EUR/USD range bound. The dollar is weaker across the board today but that weakness is less reflective of a more bearish outlook on the US economy, but rather the voracious demand for currencies of countries that may still raise interest rates again this year. At best, the Federal Reserve will only keep interest rates unchanged.

Euro: Chance for More Neutral Comments from Trichet after June Rate Hike?

With the much awaited European Central Bank interest rate decision just around the corner, the market placed greater than normal weight on the PPI release this morning. Producer prices increased 0.4 percent in April, bringing the annualized pace of growth down to 2.4 from 2.8 percent. Eurozone Retail sales and service sector PMI could fuel more gains the EUR/USD ahead of the interest rate decision. Comments from ECB officials continue to be hawkish. President Trichet said this morning that growth prospects are still very encouraging. ECB member Wellink added that low inflation is “no reason for complacency.” This essentially guarantees a rate hike on Wednesday and may raise the number of traders expecting hawkish comments in the accompanying press conference. However it is important to understand that after the ECB raises rates, unless they plan on following up with another hike the very next month, the central bank usually neutralizes its statement to some degree. Typically this involves dropping the words strongly vigilant, which would be perceived as a more dovish move. Even though economic growth has been strong, is not strong enough to warrant back to back rate hikes. The last time they delivered two consecutive hikes was back in September and October 2000. The only reason why they were so aggressive was because the EUR/USD hit a record low and the central bank was desperately trying to drum up demand for the currency pair.

British Pound: Acquisition Flows Drives Strong Gains in the British Pound

The British pound is up strongly today thanks to a wave of acquisition news and rumors that Syria could abandon its dollar peg and as a result, shift a large portion of its reserves into the British pound. Strong M&A flow has been a major driver of pound strength for the past year and it seems that even at an exchange rate of 2.00, UK companies are in strong demand. Although UK construction sector PMI for the month of May dropped to 58 from 59.8, a 3.5 year high, the index still remains at relatively high levels. BRC retail sales are on the docket tomorrow. Consumer spending is always an important indicator. It is expected to remain strong in the month of May.

Japanese Yen Crosses See Intraday Reversal

The intraday reversal in the Dow has led to an intraday reversal in carry trades. CHF/JPY and GBP/JPY ended the day in positive territory while EUR/JPY, AUD/JPY and CAD/JPY are basically unchanged. USD/JPY remained weak, but that was mostly due to broad based dollar weakness. Overnight data from Japan was strong with capital spending printing at 13.6 percent compared to the market’s 10.1 percent forecast. It is clear that this is where the increases corporate profitability is going. Employees have unfortunately been skipped over as corporations recycle their profits into capital spending. This is the primary problem preventing the Bank of Japan from raising interest rates. As long as wage growth is tepid, consumer spending will be weak.

Strong Gains Continued to be Seen in the Australian, New Zealand and Canadian Dollars

The commodity currencies continued to perform extraordinary well today as the Canadian dollar hit another fresh multi-decade high against the US dollar. Like the UK, more acquisition news is fueling the move in the Canadian dollar. GE Real Estate is said to have bought assets from Canada’s Dundee REIT for C$2.4 billion. There is no Canadian data until Wednesday which means that there is little standing in the way of further USD/CAD weakness. The Australian and New Zealand dollars are also up strongly thanks to solid Australian economic data. Company operating profit is up a whopping 7.6 percent in the first quarter while ANZ job advertisements were up 10 percent in the month of May. This suggests that GDP and employment, which are due out later this week, could also be firm. Before that, we have service sector PMI, building approvals and the current account due for release. With the AUD/USD trading not far from its May high, tonight’s data could trigger some profit taking before the more important RBA rate decision and GDP releases scheduled for Tuesday.

 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!

The Amazing Trader includes:
  • Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
  • Live trading strategy sessions.
  • Market Updates with Trading Tools.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader


Trading Ideas for 18 December 2017

Register for the Amazing Trader

1.

Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP
Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account
Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP
Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes
Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium- Wed --15:30-- US- EIA Crude

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




TRADER ADVOCACY ARTICLES

Trader's Advocate Articles..

pic

Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

 
Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map


Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105