Tuesday June 5, 2007 - 05:18:40 GMT
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Daily Analysis for EURUSDPrice:
Resistance: 1.3498 ... 1.3519 ... 1.3535 ... 1.3565
Support: 1.3473 ... 1.3454 ... 1.3421 ... 1.3391
We should see this move higher stall around 1.3516-19 for a pullback lower
Indeed we saw retest at 1.3475-80 but this quickly broke and we are now approaching the last major peak at 1.3519. From the manner of the rally and the importance of this 1.3519 peak I suspect it will cap for a pullback. Thus before getting too bullish wait for a clean break of 1.3519 and if seen it should then imply additional gains that should then move to the 1.3535 level at least â€“ care to be take here also. Above sees the 1.3565-75 pivot area and at most 1.3600-26.
The risk that we have seen a major low at 1.3391 has increased but it would still be better to wait for a break of 1.3519. This would suggest that we see a move back towards 1.3600-26 and eventually 1.3681. (June 5th)
The bearish pattern hasnâ€™t completely broken down although with cycles turning higher there is a strong risk. For the moment I feel the 1.3516-19 area could well cap for a pullback. From this resistance area a break back below 1.3473 would provide room for a correction to 1.3421-54. Only a move below here would begin to bring the downside back into the frame.
Yesterdayâ€™s break above 1.3480 along with bottoming daily cycles doesnâ€™t make the downside look quite so strong now. Only back below 1.3391 would now cause a spike to 1.3253-73 before higher again. (June 5th)
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
We have to accept the possibility that the daily correction didnâ€™t really bite as deeply as Iâ€™d been looking for. The only alternative I can see is the chance that we are seeing an expanded flat Wave â€“b- which should allow a test of 1.3519 again and would then spurn a final ABC pattern lower to the 50% daily retracement at 1.3273 and at most the 58.6% retracement at 1.3203.
Within the rally from 1.3391 I can see evidence of a 5-wave move that would imply a small internal Wave v projection at 1.3516 â€“ around the 1.3519 corrective peak. In a bullish structure this would be Wave â€“a- and should produce a correction in Wave â€“b- and then a Wave â€“c- towards the 1.3681 in Wave â€“i- of Wave (C).
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