User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Tuesday June 5, 2007 - 09:41:09 GMT
Black Swan Capital -

Share This Story:
| | Email

We're betting on Minsky!

Key News
• The British Retail Consortium says like-for-like sales in May rose by 1.8% compared with May 2006, which was the slowest rate of growth since November. (BBC)
• Ritchie Capital Management Ltd. is preparing to seek bankruptcy protection for life-insurance holdings in its flagship hedge fund, a month after blaming its co-investor for more than $700 million in losses. (Bloomberg)
• Key Reports Due (WSJ):
7:45a.m. ICSC Chain Store Sales. Previous: Unch.
8:55a.m. Redbook Retail Sales Index. Previous: +2.2%.
10:00a.m. May ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Index. Previous: 56.0.
5:00p.m. ABC/Wash Post Consumer Confidence. Previous: -14.


Steve Leuthold interviewed in Barron’s 4 June 07:

We're approaching the 10th anniversary of the big Asian financial crisis. Any thoughts about whether we are going to find ourselves in a similar situation?

“It is possible. We still have 8% in foreign markets, and it's all in emerging markets. That had been as high as 15% a couple of years ago, then we moved it to about 6% and since the first of the year we've been slightly increasing it. Our biggest single position is 2% in China. I ask myself every day if this parabolic advance in the Chinese market is the end of the road.

“Right now, we don't think so, but maybe as we get closer to the 2008 summer Olympics, the market will begin to discount a correction. We just did a study on stock multiples of companies with more than $1 billion in market value in China and the average is 32 or 33 times earnings, whereas in Japan they were 42 to 43 times earnings at the 1989 peak. But I don't think there is any way that China is going to quit investing in dollar-denominated securities, though they could allocate more to euro- or even yen-denominated securities or maybe other currencies in the Middle East. But unless the U.S. is stupid enough to raise a major threat of restricting or taxing imports, which it looks like some politicians would like to do, there will be peace until after the Olympics, and we are not likely to see some type of a trade war.”

FX Trading – We’re betting on Minsky!

“The global derivatives market grew by 25,935% since 1987 to US$415 trillion last year. Globalization is not just about outsourcing production operations to countries with lower labor costs, but also involves greater financial openness. In the last two decades, the world economy has indeed experienced a wave of financial integration, leading to lower home bias and the emergence of innovative instruments. For example, according to the Bank for International Settlements, the outstanding notional amount of exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives contracts increased from US$1.6 trillion in 1987 to US$5.7 trillion in 1990 and then surged to US$71.9 trillion by the end of the decade. That may look like an astonishing growth, but it is nothing compared to what has happened in the years of abundant liquidity. The latest survey shows that the global derivatives market grew at an annual rate of 68.5% to US$297.7 trillion in 2005 and US$415.2 trillion at the end of last year. In other words, the global pool of structured financial products ballooned from 8.7% of global GDP in 1987 to 246.1% in 2000 and then to 789.2% last year,” writes Serhan Cevik, of Morgan Stanley.

Potent punchbowls fuel wild parties.

“Positive feedback develops, as new investment leads to increases in income that stimulate further investment and further income increases. At this stage we may well get what [Hyman] Minsky calls ‘euphoria.’ Speculation for price increases is added to the investment for production and sale,” writes Charles Kindlebeger, in his classic, “Manias, Panics, and Crashes.”

Of course the usually driver is money and credit. The global punchbowl of $415.2 trillion in derivatives dwarfs anything our speculative brethren before us could have ever imagined.

Would it be fair to say we have entered the “euphoria” or “overtrading” stage of the Minsky model? Here is the basic pattern laid out by Mr. Minsky so we can all follow along:

 Displacement – New profit opportunities i.e. commodities, emerging markets, new era stuff, etc. (read China and real estate)

 Overtrading/Monetary Expansion—Pure speculation driven by too much credit and overestimation of profits leading to euphoria (read Private Equity Masters of the Universe and hedge funds; but none of us are innocent as we stretch for yields and rush headlong into all markets emerging.)

 Revulsion/Discredit—Fall in the price of the primary object of speculation (displacement stuff) as the players begin to recognize it is “over priced.” Liquidation ensues. Sometimes liquidation is orderly—but usually it manifests in panic form when the money expansion behind it is unusually large. Lenders stop lending in order to salvage some of the collateral initially supporting the credit expansion. This can be swift, as lenders at this stage realize the collateral, they thought they had, was bid up by the very money they lent.

If we were to venture a guess, we’d say we are somewhere in the later stage of Overtrading/Monetary Expansion. Unfortunately, we are just not sure how long this stage lasts. It reminds us of the Nasdaq in 1999. Many knew it would end badly, but no one seemed to know when it would end. And some very smart people such as George Soros and Julian Roberts new it too, but capitulated near the end. That should be a lesson to all of us mere mortals about just how powerful this stage can be.

Watching the lack of impact from the sell off in China over the past couple of sessions (though it was higher this morning) is yet another signal from the market that this thing isn’t over—yet. But, if I remember correctly, that “little” problem emanating from Thailand back in July 1997 didn’t get much attention then either. Sure, things are different. Emerging markets are in much better financial shape than they were. They are creditors instead of borrowers, derivatives risk is parceled out and spread more evenly, Private Equity is squeezing inefficiencies, and oh yeah, there really is a Tooth Fairy!

It’s the stuff that gives weight to a phrase we seem to fall victim too in every investment cycle: Things are different this time! Our bets are on Minsky.

Jack Crooks


Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."

Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Tue 17 July 2018
AA 08:30 GB- Employment
A 13:15 US- Industrial Production
AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony
Wed 18 July 2018
AA 08:30 GB- CPI
A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony
Thu 19 July 2018
AA 1:30 AU- Employment
AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Jun 2018
A 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner,

Global-View Affiliate Program

We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.

Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.

Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.

Contact us

Start trading with forex broker Markets Cube

Max McKegg's Daily Forex Trading Forecasts

Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.

Request a TRIAL of Max's Forex Service.


Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map

Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.



By using this website, you are agreeing to our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use, and Cookie Policy

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105