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Tuesday June 5, 2007 - 12:20:12 GMT
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Forex Research - Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition

Mellon FX Daily 06:10 EDT

Key Points
• USD soft against EUR & GBP ahead of CB meetings, but this should be reversed later in the week.
• AUD and NZD continue to prosper – AUD gains should be more durable.
• UK service sector PMI shows softer price pressures.
• US non-manufacturing ISM features today.

Market Outlook

High-yielders like the AUD and the NZD have made further advances overnight, with the AUD moving above resistance at 0.8360 (ahead of the recent high of 0.8392) and the NZD breaking through the recent high at 0.7493. The NZD continues to lead the way and the fact that it is making new highs does leave upside risk for today. However, tomorrow night’s RBNZ meeting outcome may fail to reveal anything freshly bullish and could even see a further protest against NZD strength. Only then will we see whether this move is durable. Below 0.7475 is needed to take some of the steam out of the move and below 0.7440 would be more negative.

In Australia, expectations about tonight’s Q1 GDP data (see below) have been on the rise and this has also been supporting the AUD. Overall, we would still view the AUD more favourably
han the NZD as the economy seems to be on a sounder footing. Current support on AUD-NZD is at 1.1100-30 ahead of 1.1055.

The prospect of this week’s ECB and MPC meetings continue to offer support for GBP and the EUR against the USD. Yesterday’s cable move above 1.9900 was impressive and leaves some upside risk towards 1.9975-2.000, although this short-term strength should be reversed later in the week given the better mood in the US and the likelihood of the MPC leaving rates unchanged. EUR-USD upside risk would extend to 1.3550 if 1.3520 breaks, but here too any gains should eventually be given up if the ECB fails to advance existing hawkish sentiment any further. The US non-manufacturing ISM features today (see below).

This morning’s UK and Eurozone headline service sector, readings were in line with market expectations, showing solid growth, but the ‘prices charged’ components were on the soft side. Eurozone ‘prices charged’ fell back to 53.1 from 54.4, while in the UK the category fell to a 15-month low of 52.5 from 53.9. The UK survey also showed ‘input prices’ falling to 58.3 (lowest since Dec 2006) and ‘business expectations’ at 72.0 were the weakest since Aug 2006. While output price indicators in the manufacturing sector are generally on the rise, this data will provide some degree of comfort to the MPC.

Day Ahead
US – the ISM for the non-manufacturing sector is the main data feature today. Last month’s ISM non-manufacturing number was stronger than expected at 56.0 and another decent showing for May will help to reinforce the belief that US economic conditions are improving (already boosted by last week’s solid manufacturing ISM). Bernanke takes part (via satellite link) in a panel discussion with Trichet and Fukui about housing and the economy, although it seems unlikely that any new thinking will be revealed.

Australia – Q1 GDP and the latest RBA rate announcement appear tonight. An unchanged rate outcome seems highly likely, although the market will be watching this week’s data closely given the ongoing strength in many key releases like credit growth. Optimism about the GDP outcome has been rising following recent revelations of strong Q1 readings for capex, inventories and company profits. Today’s current account deficit also confirmed that net exports will be much less of a drag on growth than they were in Q4. The risks to tonight’s number would appear to be on the upside, although the consensus number of +1.2% published above does reflect the most recent upward revisions from economists and compares with the 1% consensus in place last week.

Data/event EDT Consensus*

Market holiday - Denmark
US Chain store sls (w/e Jun 2) w/w 07.45 0.0% last
US Bernanke/Trichet/Fukui in joint conference discussion on
“housing and the economy” 08.15
US Redbook sls (w/e Jun 2) m/m 08.55 +2.2% last
US ISM non-manu (May) 10.00 55.6
US ABC consumer conf (w/e Jun 3) 17.00 -13 last
AU RBA rate announcement 19.30 unch
AU GDP (Q1) q/q 21.30 +1.2%

Latest data Actual Consensus*
GB BRC retail survey (May) y/y +1.8% +2.4% last
AU Current account (Q1) -A$15.4bn -A$14.8bn
AU Building approvals (Apr) m/m +8.1% +2.5%
ES PMI services (May) 56.2 54.2 last
IT PMI services (May) 56.5 54.0
FR PMI services (May) 57.9 58.6
DE PMI services (May) 57.5 57.9
EU PMI services (May) 57.3 57.1
GB PMI services (May) 57.2 57.0
EU Retail sales (Apr) m/m +0.2% +0.5%
* Consensus unless stated

©2007, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.
Ian Gunner 44 20 7163 5996 06.40 EDT Monday May 31 2005


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