Wednesday June 6, 2007 - 12:02:31 GMT
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GVI Monthly Forex Poll Analyis Courtesy Cumino
EUR USD 3 months: 1st day close 1.3487(1.3651), av. responses 1.3435(1.3721), Adjusted boundaries 1.33-1.38(1.35-1.40).
GVI 40%(51%) COMPONENTS: 22%75%3%(22%55%3%). DRY INDEX: 27%(55%).
EUR sentiment is deteriorating, but with neutrals so high is rather an advice to buy dips in the brief term.
USD JPY 3 months: 1st day close 121.81(119.53), av. responses 120.24(118.17), Adjusted boundaries 118-123(116-121).
GVI: 51%(50%) COMPONENTS: 18%65%17%(18%62%20%) DRY INDEX: 43%(40%).
Neutral. There is some early divergence between JPY and EUR strong bull indexes correlation, suggesting that people could be progressively inclined to think that a top in EUR-JPY is due sooner than later. This happened other times in the past and when happened during a favourable backdrop to carry trades and not stretched positions, as it is the current case, it was always a good contrarian sign, i.e. new highs were reached. This time neutrals already so high could make the sign less reliable.
OIL 3 months: 1st day close 66.21(65.71), av. responses 67.79(69.00), Adjusted boundaries 61-71(61-71).
GVI:56%(62%) COMPONENTS: 7%74%19%(7%61%32%). DRY INDEX:58%(89%)
Still bullish, but diminishing. Neutrals are high. Perhaps weather and geopolitics arenâ€™t judged so worrying, therefore there are some risks there.
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