Friday June 8, 2007 - 03:48:44 GMT
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Daily Analysis for AUDUSDPrice:
Resistance: 0.8454 ... 0.8475 ... 0.8509 ... 0.8535
Support: 0.8400 ... 0.8385 ... 0.8355 ... 0.8319
The structure is still a little unclear but price appears to have broken the uptrend & should see losses
The 0.8475 high forced a slightly deeper pullback. I canâ€™t say the wave structure is that clear but I have been expecting three waves to take us up to 0.8594. I also note that the decline to 0.8385 has broken below the series of lower highs and this could therefore suggest a deeper pullback. Thus for the upside to extend directly weâ€™ll need a break above 0.8454 to return to 0.8475 with the next resistance at 0.8509 which for now I feel may just cause a second pullback.
We have seen an aggressive break above 0.8390 and this should imply an eventual test of the 0.8594 level. The route to that target is a little unclear but watch resistance at 0.8461-88 â€“ and below there 0.8444. (June 6th)
The pullback from the 0.8475 high has broken below the 0.8398 corrective low and this appears to break the sequence of higher lows. Thus I feel there is a risk of a correction from here. While 0.8454 caps the downside can return to the 0.8385 low and while this could cause a second pullback a break below here would extend the downside to 0.8345-55 at least. Watch this with some care. Further support is then found at 0.8319 and maximum 0.8282.
Gains have been strong and the structure implies additional gains. However, there is an earlier risk of a move back to 0.8282-0.8319 but only below 0.8280 would highlight the risk of stronger losses. (June 8th)
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
The breach of the 0.8398 low implies the possibility of a deeper pullback due to the break of the last significant corrective low in the sequence of higher lows in the trend.
I also expect the rally in Wave [v] to come in three waves and as such I have labeled the 0.8475 high as Wave [a] and thus we can generate potential supports in Wave [b] at 0.8355 (38.2%) and 0.8319 (50%) and at most the 0.8282 level (61.8%).
A 61.8% projection in Wave [v] implies a target of 0.8594 which is also where a daily Wave (iii) has a target.
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