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Forex Research - Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition

Mellon FX Daily 05:45 EDT

Key Points
• Bond sell-of continues to weigh on global market sentiment.
• USD favoured over EUR and GBP – more JPY strength likely as market positioning is adjusted.
• Canadian employment and trade and US trade deficit feature today.

Market Outlook

JPY crosses are beginning to succumb to the ill winds blowing through global markets, with the rise in bond yields disrupting market sentiment. The fallout has not been that dramatic so far, with USD-JPY holding above support at 120.80, but further JPY strength looks likely in the short-term as global market instability weighs on existing market positioning. Repositioning should also place further downward pressure on EUR-USD and cable and help the USD in general. Support on EUR-USD is at 1.3300-40 and below there would signal the likelihood of further sharp declines in the short-term. EUR-USD has not closed below its 100-day moving average since October 26 and this is currently at 1.3320.

Of course, the further bond yields rise, especially in the US, the more likely the negative impact on the economy, so at some point the situation should stabilise. However, the scale of the losses seen in the bond market yesterday have inflicted psychological damage and this is likely to weigh on sentiment in the very short-term. Overall, macro-economic fundamentals remain fairly sound and given the liquidity situation in global markets the conditions for a major pullback do not appear to be in place. However, some stability in the bond market is needed to offset concerns about the possibility of a penal tightening in credit conditions.

These latest developments raise some doubts over the recent advance in higher-yielding currencies like the AUD and the NZD and they could come under some pressure in the short-term. The NZD looks the more vulnerable, but 0.7475 will need to break to signify downside risk.

Day Ahead
US – last month’s trade deficit was the highest since September with higher oil prices pushing up imports once again. This is also likely to have been the situation in April, so the higher deficit should be maintained.

Canada – employment and trade data is out today. The recent BoC statement left the market with the impression that in the absence of any gross data weakness over coming weeks, a rate hike will almost certainly be pursued in July. All data releases will now be viewed with that in mind. Last month’s employment numbers were weaker than expected, so it will be interesting to see whether that has continued or is exposed as a one-off. The trade report will be watched for export performance, which was steady in Q1 after a strong Q4. Some strong numbers will be required to boost the CAD in the current environment, which is marked by general position liquidation pressure.

Data/event EDT Consensus*

DE Ind prod (Apr) m/m 06.00 +0.6%
CA Employment (May) 07.00 +15k
CA Unemployment rate (May) 07.00 6.1%
CA Housing starts (May) 08.15 215k
US Trade balance (Apr) 08.30 -$63.4bn
CA Trade balance (Apr) 08.30 C$4.9bn

Latest data Actual Consensus*
US Consumer credit (Apr) +$2.6bn +$6.0bn
JP Machinery orders core (Apr) m/m +2.2% +4.5%
JP M2 plus CDs (May) y/y +1.4% +1.2%
JP Bank lending (May) y/y +0.9% +1.0% last
AU Housing finance (Apr) m/m +2.2% +2.0%
DE Trade balance (Apr) €15bn €15bn
DE Exports (Apr) m/m +0.9% +1.5%
DE Current account (Apr) €9.6bn €12.5bn
FR Trade balance (Apr) -€2.8bn -€2.0bn
GB Ind prod (Apr) m/m +0.3% +0.2%
GB Manu output (Apr) m/m +0.3% +0.2%
* Consensus unless stated

©2007, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.
Ian Gunner 44 20 7163 5996 06.40 EDT Monday May 31 2005


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