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Monday June 11, 2007 - 10:39:40 GMT
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Forex Research - Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition

Mellon FX Daily 06:00 EDT

Key Points
• Inflation numbers this week will hold the key for most markets.
• Key level on EUR-USD is 100-day moving average – currently 1.3325.
• RBNZ intervenes against NZD.
• UK PPI output fails to strengthen.

Market Outlook

Inflation will be a key theme this week after last week’s sharprise in bond yields. CPI data is due in the US, UK, Eurozone and also China (tonight), who have been warning about the possibility of short-term CPI strength due to soaring pork prices. This is expected to be temporary so the market will most likely focus predominantly on the releases in the majors. Given the developments of recent weeks we are now in a period where any data strength may be construed as being bad for global markets given the implications for the bond market.

Some confidence rebuilding is required and subdued inflation numbers this week (especially in the US) would be a step in the right direction. A concern of the past week or so has been the ease with which bonds have moved through key levels. Given the recent noises about Asian central banks looking to invest in assets other than US Treasuries, this type of price action is being seen as potential evidence of reduced buying support from such entities. Again, some rapid stabilisation will be required to offset this area of vulnerability in market sentiment.

The main response in the FX market to recent developments has been some position closing in the USD’s favour against the EUR, which has also carried negative implications for cable. This type of relationship with global markets will most likely persist in the short-term. The key level on EUR-USD is at 1.3325, the current 100-day moving average. EUR-USD has not closed below its 100-day moving average since Oct 26.

The rest of the reaction in the FX market has been rather muted. The JPY has strengthened on the crosses, but not that dramatically, while USD-JPY is unchanged. The high-yielders are only modestly off their highs, while the CHF has been unable to advance much at all against the EUR. Any sustained stability this week will lend justification to this apparent calmness, but the tone of the CPI data and the reaction in the bond market will hold the key.

The main focus overnight has been the intervention by the RBNZ against the NZD, the first time they have intervened since the NZD floated in 1985. In some ways it is a dangerous precedent to set and if it fails their credibility would be undermined. Moreover, history suggests that central banks are
ill advised in taking such action when interest rate policy is placing opposite directional pressure on a currency. For the time being the move will probably carry some shock value, but the market will most likely test the RBNZ’s resolve again at some point and key will be whether they are able to hold it below the levels in place during today’s intervention. Initial intervention took place around 0.7625, while other reports suggest a second round just below 0.7560. The best chance for some NZD weakness will come from any softening in the economic data. After three successive tightening moves any weakening in the data will promote expectations that the NZ economy is about to fall down and this would undermine the NZD. Overall, we would stick to the conclusions made last week - that the NZD is probably best avoided. If high-yield exposure is still desired in the current environment, the AUD looks a
better bet.

It is a big week for inflation numbers in the UK, with PPI, CPI and average earnings all due. PPI was released this morning and was reasonably subdued, especially given the higher readings for output prices that have appeared in the CBI and PMI surveys (see chart). There was a clear risk of some strength in today’s report and it has failed to materialise.

Data/event EDT Consensus*

AU Market Holiday
CA New house prices (Apr) m/m 08.30 +0.3%
CA Capacity utilisation (Q1) 08.30 82.5% last
JP Domestic CGPI (May) y/y 19.50 +2.0%
JP Dom CGPI finished gds (May) y/y 19.50 -0.1% last
AU Business confidence (May) 21.30 +13 last
CN CPI (May) y/y 22.00 +3.3%
JP Consumer confidence (May) 00.00 47.8

Latest data Actual Consensus*
NZ QV house prices (May) y/y +11.1% +10.6% last
JP GDP (Q1 2nd est) q/q +0.8% +0.8%
FR Ind prod (Apr) m/m -0.8% +0.1%
NO CPI (May) y/y +0.3% +0.4%
NO CPIX (May) y/y +1.4% +1.5%
IT Ind prod (Apr) m/m -0.8% 0.0%
GB PPI input (May) m/m +1.2% +0.6%
GB PPI input (May) y/y +1.1% +1.0%
GB PPI output (May) m/m +0.4% +0.4%
GB PPI output core (May) y/y +2.3% +2.3%
GB DCLG house prices (Apr) y/y +11.3% +11.0%
* Consensus unless stated

©2007, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.
Ian Gunner 44 20 7163 5996 06.40 EDT Monday May 31 2005


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