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Monday June 11, 2007 - 11:50:24 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com

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FX Thoughts for the day - Evening - 11-June-2007....1123 GMT

EURO, JAP YEN and EURO-YEN
---------------------------
Read our current comments and trade recommendations on EUR-USD, USD-JPY and EUR-JPY by registering at
http://www.kshitij.com/fxthoughts/fxthoughts.shtml#register

Our comments on Dollar-Swiss, Sterling Pound and Australian Dollar are given below
---------------------


USD-CHF @ 1.2388/92.……Support at 1.2315
-------------------------------------------------------
R: 1.2413 / 1.2435-40
S: 1.2370 / 1.2340 / 1.2315
USD-CHF was extremely volatile last week as it initially declined to a low of 1.2147 and then had a strong rally on Thursday and Friday and it closed at 1.2350 above its 200-MA on the daily of 1.2315. Now this week the pair is expected to remain strong while it stays above this level. The pair could target 1.2439 during the week.

USD-CHF bas build up on its strength during the day and the pair has moved up a bit. Currently the pair looks like that it is heading towards 1.2413, the statistically projected Max High for the day. If that is crossed then there could be a rally towards 1.2435-40 over today or tomorrow. On the downside the Supports are at 1.2370 and then at 1.2340. The 200-MA on the daily is at 1.2315. The bias for the pair is bullish for the week while it holds above 1.2315.

The Swiss National Bank meets later this week on the 14-June, where they are expected to raise rates. See the Swiss interest rate chart and Swiss Libor at http://www.kshitij.com/utilities/funcharts/snb.shtml.



GBP-USD @ 1.9667/72......Support at 1.9620
------------------------------------------------
R: 1.9690 / 1.9734-40
S: 1.9650 / 1.9620
GBP-USD was extremely choppy last week as the pair initially moved up to a high of 1.9970 and then it sold off sharply to a low of 1.9622 on Friday. It is expected to remain under pressure this week and the important Support to watch would come in at 1.9615, which comes on the trendline on the weekly, joining the lows of 1.8522 (Oct-06) and 1.9182 (March-07). A break below 1.9620 on a closing basis could trigger further sharp losses in the pair possibly towards 1.9520. On the upside the important Resistance for the week would come in at 1.9750 and 1.9800.

GBP-USD, so far today has traded in a range of 1.9687 on the upside and 1.9650 on the downside. Today the Resistance for the pair is at 1.9690 and then at 1.9734, the statistically projected Max High for the day. On the downside the Supports are at 1.9650 and then at 1.9620-15. Keeping in mind the oversold nature of the pair currently and the Strong Support at 1.9620, we would like to buy a dip.

There are a couple of important data form the UK this week, which is expected to have a big bearing on the GBP-USD this week, notably the UK trade Balance and the UK CPI on 12th. See the UK Trade Balance chart at http://www.kshitij.com/utilities/funcharts/uktrbal.shtml

Limit Buy Order:
Buy GBP 15K at 1.9620, SL 1.9580, TP 1.9730



AUD-USD @ 0.8425/29…..…Volatility expected later on.
---------------------------------------------------
R: 0.8450-55 / 0.8475
S: 0.8387 / 0.8370
AUD-USD closed last week with strong gains in which it hit its highest level in 18 years at 0.8479 on 07TH June. It was the highest level for the pair since 1989, above its Aug-1990 High. However, the pair came off a bit and had considerable volatility, late Thursday and Friday. The pair is unlikely to move much this week, as there is no significant economic data out of Australia. The Resistance for the week is at 0.8480 and the Support is at 0.8350.

For today the Support for the pair is at 0.8387, the statistically projected Max Low for the day. A move below that may trigger a fall towards 0.8370. On the upside the immediate Resistances are at 0.8450-55 and then at 0.8475. There are no trading ideas in the pair currently.

AUD-USD traders should be aware of the expected volatility in the pair tomorrow morning as Australia was closed today and RBNZ intervened in currency market.



Happy Trading!





 

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