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Tuesday June 12, 2007 - 08:35:11 GMT
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ACM - www.ac-markets.com
New Zealand Dollar declined ignoring RBNZ first intervention
By Jean-Claude Braha - ACM Advanced Currency Markets, Geneva, Switzerland
News and Events:
The Dollar rallied to a 3 ½ month high against the Swiss franc on Monday, with US 10-year Treasury yields over 5% and investors largely ignoring the New Zealand central bank's first market intervention in 22 years. The NzdUsd posted its largest decline in 15 months after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand sold its own currency, but there was only limited impact on carry trades in which investors buy high-yielding currencies like the New Zealand funded by borrowing low-cost currencies such as the Swiss Franc or the Japanese Yen. The RBNZ intervention to curb the NZD came four days after the central bank surprised markets by raising its key interest rate to 8%, the highest benchmark rate in the industrialized world.
NzdUsd fell -1.7% to 0.7514, well off highs of 0.7643 reached on Friday, the strongest level since the currency was floated in 1985. NzdJpy tumbled 1.7% to 91.31 while the US Dollar was little changed against the Yen at 121.78. UsdChf peaked just above 1.2400, before settling at 1.2380 up 0.3%.
With no major US economic data on Monday, dealers kept liquid currencies, other than the New Zealand Dollar, in narrow ranges, waiting for the may US retail sales report on Wednesday.
Today's Key Issues (time in GMT):
08.30 GB May Consumer Price Index 0.3% vs 0.3% (MoM)
08.30 GB May Consumer Price Index 2.6% vs 2.8% (YoY)
08.30 GB May Retail Price Index 0.4% vs 0.5% (MoM)
08.30 GB May Retail Price Index 4.3% vs 4.5% (YoY)
08.30 GB April Trade Balance -Â£7B vs -Â£7.05B
08.30 GB April Trade Balance non-EU -Â£4B vs -Â£3.96B
09.00 EUR April Euro-zone Industrial Production 0.2% vs 0.4% (MoM)
09.00 EUR April Euro-zone Industrial Production 4.4% vs 3.7% (YoY)
12.30 US Treasury Secretary Paulson speaks at Trade Conference in Atlanta
12.55 US Redbook (June 09) previously 2.1%
14.00 US Fed's Moskow gives welcome remarks at Bank's Conference
15.00 US May Treasury Budget -$71B vs -$177.7B
16.30 US Former Fed Chairman Greenspan speaks at Mortgage Conference NY
18.00 US may Monthly Budget Statement -$61B vs -$42.9B
18.50 US Fed's Moskow introduces speaker at Transportation Conf.
23.00 US Federal Reserve's Lockhart to Welcome International Conference in Atlanta
23.50 JPY April Current Account Y 1818.1B vs 3317.2B
23.50 JPY Balance of payments Y 1068.5B vs Y 1782.0B
The Risk Today:
EurUsd break of the 1.3371 former support reinforced the short-term bear trend developing from the 1.3681 late-April high, and leaves little support till the 1.3277 (50% retracement from 1.2872 to 1.3681 advance). Further weakness might open the way toward 1.3247 end March low. Meanwhile, resistance is located around Friday's high at 1.3430.
GbpUsd pushed through 1.9823 former support (61.8% retracement of the 1.9733-1.9969 rise) and the breakout high from May 31. This paves the way for a deeper retreat towards 1.9677 trend low. This could resume bear trend towards 1.9659 (50% retracement of the 1.9184 to 2.0134 advance) and further setback towards 1.9592, April 9 low. Resistance zone is located at 1.9793 Friday's high.
UsdJpy is holding onto 120.86 support but the recent rebound remains capped at 121.94 Tuesday's high. A return above this resistance area is required to bring the 122.14 trend high back into focus. Bull trend remains intact with the focus on the January-February 122.10 to 122.22 highs. Not far off is 122.38 (61.8% of 135.18-101.65 big 5 years decline).
UsdChf's sharp push from last week's 1.2148 low has moved through the 1.2356 high from March 9. Penetration there clears the way for a run at 1.2438 (76.4% retracement of the 1.2575-1.1994 decline).
Resistance and Support:
|EURUSD ||GBPUSD ||USDJPY ||USDCHF |
|1.3750 T ||2.0100 T ||122.22 T ||1.2573 T |
|1.3554 S ||2.0000 K ||122.14 S ||1.2540 M |
|1.3430 M ||1.9793 S ||121.94 M ||1.2438 S |
|1.3350 ||1.9690 ||121.70 ||1.2385 |
|1.3290 S ||1.9659 S ||120.86 M ||1.2248 S |
|1.3277 K ||1.9522 K ||119.55 T ||1.2148 M |
|1.3247 S ||1.9383 T ||118.90 S ||1.2127 S |
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Wed 18 Oct /ul>
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.
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