User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Tuesday June 12, 2007 - 21:22:08 GMT
DailyFX.com - www.dailyfx.com

Share This Story:
| | Email

Forex - Euro Hits Fresh 2 Month Low

DailyFX Fundamentals 06-12-07

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist of DailyFX.com

• Dollar Rallies, Bond Yields Hit 5 Year High, Stock Market Plummets: What Does It Mean for US Data?
• Euro Hits Fresh 2 Month Low
• British Pound: UK Economic Data Begins to Strengthen, Leading Currency Higher

Dollar Rallies, Bond Yields Hit 5 Year High, Stock Market Plummets: What Does It Mean for US Data?

Even though there was no major US economic data released today, we had very volatile price action in the financial markets. The Dow Jones was down 90 points in the first hour of trading then rebounded back to flat before selling off once again to end the day down almost 130 points. Ten year bond yields also hit a 5 year high driving the US dollar up against the Euro and Japanese Yen. In fact, the yield curve is now pricing a slim chance of a rate hike over the next year. The price action in the three markets suggests that the bias is certainly skewed towards stronger numbers tomorrow morning as the US data calendar heats up significantly. We are expecting May retail sales and import prices, April business inventories, the Treasury’s report on FX manipulation as well as the Beige Book report. Record gasoline prices in late April, early May could boost gasoline receipts which are reflected in the overall value of retail sales. The weaker dollar on the other hand should drive import prices higher. Inventories are expected to rebound after a drop in March while China will mostly likely avoid being branded a currency manipulator given recent changes to monetary policy. Stronger economic data will only validate the Federal Reserve’s need to leave interest rate unchanged which is why the stock market is falling instead of rising. Stocks will need to fall much further before the Fed will consider lowering interest rates however.

Euro Hits Fresh 2 Month Low

The Euro has sold off everyday since last week’s ECB meeting. The weakness has been so severe that the currency is now trading at a fresh 2 month low against the US dollar. Broad dollar strength was the primary catalyst for today’s move, but we are also seeing holes in European data. In the month of April, industrial production dropped by 0.8 percent with contraction reported by Germany, France and Italy. On top of that, we also saw a slowdown in the growth of wholesale prices, which suggests that inflationary pressures may be abating. Even so, ECB members remain very hawkish and continue to warn of the need for further rate hikes this year. It is this very sentiment that will limit losses in the EUR/USD. The Federal Reserve remains on hold, but the ECB is still looking to raise interest rates. Of course, any further rate hikes are not expected until September at the earliest. In the meantime, there are no major European data due for release tomorrow.

British Pound: UK Economic Data Begins to Strengthen, Leading Currency Higher

The British pound was the only currency that managed to strengthen against the US dollar today. Despite an exchange rate of 2.0 in the month of April, the trade deficit actually narrowed to a 2 year low thanks to an improvement in the oil sector. Inflation numbers were also stronger than expected as the annualized growth of core prices increased from 1.8 to 1.9 percent in the month of May. Both of these numbers illustrate the UK economy’s resilience to a strong currency. The same is expected in tomorrow’s labor market figures. Strength in the employment component of both the service and manufacturing ISM reports suggest that we could see a continual drop in jobless claims. A better economic outlook is one of the primary reasons why Bank of England Governor King was so hawkish yesterday evening. His concern for inflation is a clear sign that the central bank plans on increasing interest rates again. The fact that economic data did not worsen given the strength of the British Pound is just another reason why 6 percent rates is a valid possibility.

Sell-off in US Stocks Drive Yen Crosses Lower

All of the Yen crosses with the exception of USD/JPY came under the weight of US stocks today. This is clearly tied to the liquidation of carry trades because Japanese economic data was tepid. CGPI growth continued to slow in the month of May, bringing the annualized pace of growth down to 2.2 percent from 2.3 percent. Consumer confidence also deteriorated while bankruptcies increased by 21 percent. Even though Finance Minister Omi said last night that interest rates will have to rise in the long term, the data reflects a country that is not ready for another rate hike. Corporations are clearly hoarding their profits and not sharing it with their employees, which is the primary reason why the country as a whole is facing such weak growth prospects. However if the benefits of a weak Yen was to be reflected in some piece of data, it would have to be in trade. The Japanese Yen weakened significantly in the month of April and we expect this weakness to provide a big boost to the current account surplus.

Commodity Currencies Tumble on Liquidation of High Yielders

The Australian, New Zealand and Canadian dollars all weakened on the back of carry trade liquidation. In fact, the New Zealand dollar did not turn negative until the late US session. There was no further intervention by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand last night although Bollard did warn that the stretched economy is making the inflation target far more difficult to achieve. These words confirm that despite the intervention, the RBNZ still intends to raise interest rates this year. New Zealand business confidence is due for release tonight and we are expecting a sharp deterioration. Australian business confidence on the other hand increased from 13 to 15 in the month of May, which is in line with the overall improvements that we have seen in the economy. Like New Zealand, Australia is still expected to raise interest rates this year. Meanwhile softer oil prices pushed the Canadian dollar lower since first quarter productivity was actually stronger than expected. We expect the movements in the equity markets to continue to drive the price action in the commodity currencies.

 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!

The Amazing Trader includes:
  • Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
  • Live trading strategy sessions.
  • Market Updates with Trading Tools.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader


Trading Ideas for 18 October 2017

Register for the Amazing Trader

1.

Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Wed 18 Oct
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales

Forex Trading Outlook


Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




TRADER ADVOCACY ARTICLES

Trader's Advocate Articles..

pic

Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

 
Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map


Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105