Wednesday June 13, 2007 - 05:18:14 GMT
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Daily Analysis for USDJPYPrice:
Resistance: 121.85 ... 122.27 ... 122.63 ... 122.85
Support: 121.46 ... 121.20 ... 121.00 ... 120.76
I suggest a little care again today although a move to 122.12-18 seems likely
Yesterday was as frustrating as Monday. However, this morningâ€™s dip into the 121.40-46 support area and rejection should now lead to a little more clarity. If we are still in a bullish phase then the recovery should move above the 121.85 peak seen so far and probably through to the 122.18 high (max 122.27). However, for now this should cap. Only breach of 122.30 would extend the upside to 122.63 and possibly 122.85.
While we have seen a dip a few points below 120.84 the recovery from 120.76 does open a retest of 122.18 and possibly 122.63. At the moment that is all I suspect. Next larger target is at 124.28. (June 11th)
The 121-40-46 area has supported and this would imply a move to 122.18-27. If we see a move to that area then expect a 50% correction of the rally from 120.76. However, if there is any earlier break below 121.40 it would suggest the major medium peak is in place. On that eventuality look for the downside to come under pressure for a return to 120.76 and probably further to 120.49 at least. Next support is then found at 119.65-97.
Price has struggled to push cleanly below 120.84 and still needs to make a break of 120.76 and 120.46 but should then confirm losses over the next 2 months. 119.62 is important, the 118.64 en route 115.16. (June 11th)
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
A 66.7%-76.8% projection in minor Wave v from this morningâ€™s 121.48 Wave iv low would imply a test of the 122.18-27 area. This would complete Wave â€“a- of Wave â€“v- and thus cause a pullback in Wave â€“b-.
Any earlier break below the 121.40 area (a 58.6% retracement in minor Wave iv) would imply the recovery to 121.85 came in three waves and thus completed Wave (b) and thus cause losses to wave equality at 120.49 and more likely to the 138.2%-161.8% projection in Wave (c) at 119.65-97.
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