Friday June 15, 2007 - 03:47:53 GMT
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Daily Analysis for USDCHFPrice:
Resistance: 1.2468 ... 1.2483 ... 1.2502 ... 1.2541
Support: 1.2426 ... 1.2409 ... 1.2373 ... 1.2320
I suspect a top â€“ below 1.2425 confirms but must allow for a final move to 1.2483-00
Rather boring range trading was seen yesterday but the same analysis applies. I do feel we are moving to retest the 1.2426 low but while this supports there is still a risk of a further rally that should move above the 1.2468 high and to 1.2483 (max 1.2502) which should cap. Thus a stronger bullish stance would require a break above 1.2502 and if seen would then threaten the 1.2529-41 area and possibly as high as 1.2566-76.
We have seen break above 1.2439 but I do note resistance at 1.2483. Thus we still need a clean break above here to retain a larger move to retest the 1.2576 high. Next resistance is at 1.2612 and then 1.2691. (June 14th)
Daily Bearish: The move up to 1.2468 has not really provided a bearish divergence (although one is technically not required for a peak) and we didnâ€™t quite make it to the 1.2483 target. There still maybe chance of this and tentatively I feel this should cap for a reversal lower. Only an earlier break below 1.2426 would provide the reversal sooner and then trigger losses to 1.2372-75 which could cause a pullback. Below extends to the 1.2320-25 pivot support.
Are we close to a peak? There is a good chance with resistance at 1.2483. However, to confirm we shall need a break back below 1.2372 and 1.2320-25 â€“ if seen the next stop should be around the 1.2146 low. (June 14th)
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
The break above 1.2439 to 1.2468 is suggesting the alternative structure which labels the 1.2331 peak as Wave [a] and the 1.2146 low as Wave [b] may well be correct. A wave equality target is at 1.2483. It is not impossible that the 1.2468 peak may have satisfied this but we should allow for it.
If this is correct then we require a move below the 1.2320-25 pivot area to provide a move back to the prior Wave [b] at 1.2146 initially.
We could be seeing a flat correction above 1.2426 and thus the 1.2483 wave equality target is still valid and while it holds the next move should be lower. Above 1.2502 threatens the 1.2566-76 peaks.
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