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Friday June 15, 2007 - 10:28:40 GMT
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Forex Research - Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition

Mellon FX Daily 06:05 EDT

Key Points
• Global markets steadier, aiding EUR-USD, but
1.3330-40 needs to break to nullify current downside risk.
• JPY vulnerability remains from an interest rate perspective.
• Fukui adopts more dovish stance after BoJ meeting.
• Many US data releases scheduled for today.

Market Outlook

The rebuilding of confidence in global markets is helping EURUSD to a certain degree, although so far the bond market has merely stopped falling rather than embarking on an outright recovery. However, it is the rate of change in the bond market that has been unsettling equities and if the bond move does stop here, equities should be well supported given that most of the major indices do not look expensive on the basis of traditional valuation measures like PE ratios. A more significant deterioration in the macro-economic backdrop and/or the introduction of some systemic risk will be needed to seriously undermine the equity market. At the current time all that has happened is that the market has embraced a higher level of real interest rates and as long as this remains orderly it is probably no bad thing given how plentiful liquidity has become in recent years. Today’s US data (see below) will be watched carefully.

EUR-USD is looking better, but a move back above the 1.3330- 40 level will be needed to nullify current downside risk. The tone of today’s US data releases will be significant in this regard. Of course, with interest rates on the rise in majors like the Eurozone and the US (developments that are supported by recent economic data) the JPY is being left behind. JPY yields have also risen significantly in recent weeks, although not to the same extent as that seen in the US and the Eurozone. Furthermore, such developments are not supported by Japanese data releases, which have been slightly disappointing. The JPY will remain vulnerable in this regard.

As if to demonstrate the situation, comments from Fukui after today’s BoJ meeting were also dovish. He said the usual things about there being no set plan on raising rates, but also introduced elements of caution that have not been emphasized in recent times. For example, “to change our policy we need to be more convinced about the economic outlook. We need to see U.S. economic developments. We also want more proof of the sustainability of domestic demand such as capital spending and household consumption”. He also said that they wanted to monitor the recent rise in long term yields (globally as well as locally) and how this could affect economic conditions.124.50 looks likely on USD-JPY in the very short-term.

Day Ahead
US– lots of information out of the US today, with CPI, the NY Fed index, TIC portfolio data, Q1 balance of payments, industrial output and Michigan sentiment all due. Bernanke will also speak on money and credit. CPI will most likely be the main focal point, although the NY Fed index and Michigan sentiment releases will show whether there is any further evidence of a recovery in economic activity. There is a possible threat to Michigan sentiment from the ongoing strength in fuel prices, although the Conference Board measure was more resilient last time and retail spending has been holding up well. The NY Fed index is expected to recover further into positive territory, in line with the better readings in other manufacturing indicators, although this can be a volatile series, more so for instance than its Philly Fed equivalent. Core CPI has been reasonably steady in recent months (Apr +0.2%, Mar +0.1%, Feb +0.2%, Jan +0.3%) after a soft Q4, where +0.1% was registered in each month.

The Q1 balance of payments release also tends to bring revisions (sometimes large) to past data. The current account deficit will be the major focal point, although there will also be interest in FDI and equity flows as well as the extent of official financing of the current account deficit. The TIC data suggested a net inflow into the US on equities in Q1, although the TIC only takes account of actual equity transactions, whereas the equity account in the BoP will also record changes in equity ownership related to equity financed M&A deals.

Data/event EDT Consensus*

US Bernanke spks on money & credit 08.30
US CPI (May) m/m 08.30 +0.6%
US CPI core (May) m/m 08.30 +0.2%
US NY Fed index (Jun) 08.30 +10.5
US Current account (Q1) 08.30 -$202.9bn
US TIC intl portfolio balance (Apr) 09.00 $71.5bn
US Ind prod (May) m/m 09.15 +0.2%
US Capacity utilisation (May) 09.15 81.6%
US Michigan sentiment (Jun, prel) 10.00 88.0

Latest data Actual Consensus*
NZ Manufacturing activity (Q1) q/q +0.8% -2.2% last
JP Tertiary index (Apr) m/m +1.7% +1.5%
JP BoJ rate announcement unch unch
NO Trade balance (May) NOK27bn NOK26.5bn
EU Trade balance (Apr, sa) €3.5bn €5.1bn last
* Consensus unless stated

©2007, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.
Ian Gunner 44 20 7163 5996 06.40 EDT Monday May 31 2005


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