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Monday June 18, 2007 - 10:43:59 GMT
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Forex Research - Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition

Mellon FX Daily 06:00 EDT

Key Points
• More EUR-USD upside looking likely in the short-term after Friday’s bounce.
• JPY weakness likely to extend this week.
• RBNZ tries to stop NZD.
• Quiet week for data should lend itself to some further stability in global markets.
• US NAHB housing index due today.

Market Outlook

EUR-USD has held on to the ground won back on Friday, with the rebound above the 100-day moving average (now at 1.3346) providing a technical boost to short-term prospects. Looking at Friday’s data overall, the picture of a recovering US economy remains intact, with the strong NY Fed index offsetting the weaker than expected outcome on Michigan sentiment. However, given the recent focus on global market instability and the impact this has had on the USD, EUR-USD largely tracked the US 10-year on Friday and this was helped higher (in price terms) by the softer than expected core CPI number.

The downmove in EUR-USD over the past couple of weeks has been led by a cutback in prior long positioning and this was also evident in the latest IMM data. As of last Tuesday, which just happened to be the lowest close on EUR-USD last week, net long spec positioning for EUR-USD on the IMM stood at 50,638 down from 84,965 the previous week. The position is still fairly large but not compared to recent standards and this provided room for the position rebuilding seen at the end of last week.

Further EUR-USD upside looks likely in the very short-term, with 1.3485-1.3550 possible. It is a quiet data schedule this week and this should lend itself to some further stability in global markets, which should also be productive for EUR-USD.

The one common theme that is likely to continue from last week is JPY weakness. The JPY has been exposed further by therecent hardening in rate expectations in the US and the Eurozone and with global markets looking steadier this should also work against the JPY. 124.50 looks likely on USD-JPY, while EUR-JPY has scope up to 167-168.

The RBNZ appeared to intervene early on in the NZ session, with the NZD trading just above 0.7550 at the time. This is consistent with the approach of trying to defend levels where previous intervention has taken place. Last week’s two rounds appeared to be around 0.7625 then just below 0.7560. However, with global markets strong and the JPY weak it was a difficult day to prevent NZD strength and after being marked down abruptly to 0.7500 shortly after the RBNZ action (which was not verbally confirmed), the NZD recovered during the rest of the session, reaching a high of 0.7574 early in Europe. It has since moved lower, but further upside testing may be seen in the short-term if global markets continue to recover and this could test the resolve of the RBNZ, who will no doubt be keen to defend 0.7625. However, we would still see medium-term danger for the NZD if domestic data starts to turn.

Day Ahead
US – the NAHB housing index is the product of a survey of builders, combining measures relating to current and expected sales and the number of prospective buyer inquiries. This has slumped back again over the past couple of months, helping to maintain doubts about the likely strength of any recovery in housing. However, financial market impact has been offset by the developments in other data, particularly with regard to general activity, which has suggested that the economy is shrugging off the impact of a weak housing market. Indeed in current circumstances, if the housing market were to show any sign of a meaningful recovery, this would be the trigger for the market to start building in expectations of a rate hike.

Data/event EDT Consensus*

CA Net portfolio balance (Apr) 08.30 -C$6.4bn last
EU Trichet on “Succeeding through uncertainty” 12.00
US NAHB housing index (Jun) 13.00 30

Latest data Actual Consensus*
GB Rightmove house prices (Jun) y/y +13.2% +13.1% last
CH Ind prod (Q1) y/y +7.3% +7.9%
* Consensus unless stated

©2007, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.
Ian Gunner 44 20 7163 5996 06.40 EDT Monday May 31 2005


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