Wednesday June 20, 2007 - 03:54:28 GMT
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Daily Analysis for USDCADPrice:
Resistance: 1.0650 ... 1.0670 ... 1.0695 ... 1.0720
Support: 1.0588 ... 1.0560 ... 1.0547 ... 1.0518
Care â€“ waiting for breaks
The degree of losses came as a complete surpriseâ€¦. If I am to make any bullish structure out of this then the 1.0588-00 area needs to hold. From this area we then need a break back above the 1.0640-45 pivot area and if seen I think weâ€™ll see an equally strong recovery back to 1.0751-57 again initially and while that should produce a correction the next move higher should follow onâ€¦
The expected break higher came a little earlier than anticipated and should continue towards 1.0808-43 at least en route 1.1005 and probably 1.1067. (June 19th)
The break back below 1.0690 came as a surprise and has caused a decline through 1.0626-50 and is approaching the 1.0602 low. We should also allow for a test of 1.0588. Thus, before getting too bearish Iâ€™d prefer to see a move below the 1.0588 corrective low and once seen it should cause a retest of 1.0547 and probably extension beyond that. Next support is then found at 1.0469-99.
Yesterdayâ€™s sharp decline cannot be ignored but only below 1.0588 would suggest we are seeing the resumption of the downtrend below 1.0547. Beyond exercise caution at 1.0469-99. (June 20th)
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
The loss of 1.0690 seems to suggest that we are seeing a flat correction and should therefore see a retest of the 1.0602 low (max the 1.0588 corrective low.) While this holds we should then see a return to the 1.0751-57 area in a new Wave a to be followed by a Wave b before higher again.
Any loss of 1.0588 would suggest a very shallow Wave [iv] â€“ or an expanded flat with 38.2% expansion at 1.0469.
Below that is very bearish for an eventual test of parity.
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