User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Wednesday June 20, 2007 - 10:38:42 GMT
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange -

Share This Story:
| | Email

Forex Research - Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition

Mellon FX Daily 06:05 EDT

Key Points
• JPY weakness shows some sign of momentum loss but key EUR-JPY level holds.
• GBP higher after minutes reveal close MPC vote.
• SEK up sharply after Riksbank raises repo rate forecasts.
• NZD probes higher awaiting RBNZ intervention.
• US mortgage applications, Canadian wholesale sales feature today.

Market Outlook

The JPY corrected early on in Europe, with USD-JPY breaking below 123.30 and EUR-JPY testing key near-term support at 165.20-25. However, the latter held and the JPY was quickly sold once again. The price action is suggestive of some momentum loss in the recent move against the JPY, so there is a slight risk of some corrective activity in the short-term. 165.20 on EUR-JPY will hold the key to near-term JPY sentiment. However, any JPY strength is likely to be temporary, with the basic arguments against the JPY firmly intact. Above 165.80 on EUR-JPY would suggest a retest and possible break of the recent highs at 166.10. EUR-USD continues to have room up to the 1.3485-1.3550 area.

GBP firmed after the June 6-7 MPC meeting minutes, which showed a close 5-4 vote in favour of keeping rates unchanged. One of the four voting for a 25bp hike was governor King. Short sterling interest rate futures have not hardened that much on the day, as much was already discounted and rate markets in general have been softer today following the overnight fall in US yields. However, the market will now be looking firmly at the prospect of a hike in July and there may even be speculation about a follow-up move in August, in line with the Inflation Report of that month. In such circumstances, GBP is likely to remain in favour. The tone of tomorrow’s CBI output price expectations number will also be important for GBP.

EUR-SEK fell sharply after the Riksbank raised rates by 25bp and more importantly raised its forecast trajectory for future interest rates to those discounted in the market. The market has now moved to discount an even higher profile, viewing the Riksbank projection as a ‘floor’ scenario. The Riksbank expects the repo rate (currently 3.5%) to average 3.9% in Q4 07 and 4.2% in Q2 08. The news was also accompanied by the latest unemployment data, which showed the unemployment rate falling by more than expected. The news has put a firm top on EUR-SEK at the previous resistance at 9.42-9.45 and downside is now favoured. 9.25 (pivotal in recent times) will need to break to suggest further weakness. Retail sales data is due next Thursday and it was the disappointment surrounding this data last month that was at the source of the recent SEK weakness. It will be significant to see whether such weakness in sales has been temporary.

The NZD has been probing higher overnight, with the market trying to gauge when the next round of RBNZ FX intervention will be forthcoming. This is the problem with intervention – price action is turned into a game between the market and the CB and the RBNZ may be unwilling to take part too extensively. However, having intervened first of all last week around 0.7625, some efforts to protect this level are likely to be seen if necessary. JPY developments could also be significant, as any further corrective move in the JPY make take some of the shine off high-yielding currencies like the NZD. Below 0.7450 is needed to suggest a top on the short-term chart, while 0.7575 has importance for today.

Day Ahead
US – weekly mortgage applications data is the only release of interest out of the US. The recent move higher in bond yields may raise fresh question marks about the state of demand inthe housing market, although oddly enough last week’s mortgage applications data was strong in both ‘purchase’ and ’refinancing’ categories. It seems unlikely that this will continue, but the market will be watching closely.

Canada – wholesale sales data (due today) has been strong in
recent months and for these reasons alone (i.e. statistical noise) there is a risk of a softer number today. However, it would have to be very weak to unhinge expectations of a Bank of Canada rate hike on July 10. Wholesale sales have been fairly well correlated with retail sales ex-autos in recent months, so the tone of today’s data will also affect sentiment about tomorrow’s retail sales report. The CAD was able to shrug off yesterday’s= slightly weaker than expected core CPI number and while positioning is still extended in the CAD’s favour (a possible constraint to USD-CAD downside) CAD sentiment is likely to remain solid ahead of the BoC meeting. Initial support is at the channel line coming in around 1.0610 ahead of the more notable 1.0500-50 area.

Data/event EDT Consensus*

US Mortgage apps – purchases w/w 07.00 +7.2% last
CA Wholesale sales (Apr) m/m 08.30 +0.5%
CA Leading indicator (May) m/m 08.30 +0.5%
JP Trade balance (May, sa) 19.50 ¥890bn

Latest data Actual Consensus*
US ABC consumer conf (w/e Jun 17) -14 -13 last
JP MoF manu survey (Q2) -2.2 0.1 last
JP MoF all-industry survey (Q2) -0.9 6.2 last
JP All-industry index (Apr) m/m +1.2% +1.2%
DE PPI (May) y/y +1.9% +1.6%
SE Riksbank repo outcome +25bp +25bp
SE Unemployment rate (May, nsa) 3.9% 4.2%
IT Ind orders (Apr) m/m -1.1% -1.0%
GB MPC minutes (Jun 6-7 meeting) 5-4 7-2
GB PSNCR (May) £6.2bn £7.0bn
GB M4 (May) y/y +13.8% +13.4%
GB M4 lending (May) y/y +13.3% +12.9% last
GB BBA mortgage lending (May) +£5.8bn +£5.1bn last
* Consensus unless stated

©2007, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.
Ian Gunner 44 20 7163 5996 06.40 EDT Monday May 31 2005


Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."

Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Tue 17 July 2018
AA 08:30 GB- Employment
A 13:15 US- Industrial Production
AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony
Wed 18 July 2018
AA 08:30 GB- CPI
A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony
Thu 19 July 2018
AA 1:30 AU- Employment
AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Jun 2018
A 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner,

Global-View Affiliate Program

We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.

Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.

Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.

Contact us

Start trading with forex broker Markets Cube

Max McKegg's Daily Forex Trading Forecasts

Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.

Request a TRIAL of Max's Forex Service.


Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map

Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.



By using this website, you are agreeing to our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use, and Cookie Policy

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105