Thursday June 21, 2007 - 05:03:49 GMT
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Daily Analysis for EURJPYPrice:
Resistance: 165.64 ... 165.86 ... 166.11 ... 166.46
Support: 165.42 ... 165.19 ... 164.95 ... 164.52
Slightly mixed ā thus wait for breaks but I still prefer a more bearish stance for now
The 165.05-24 area held attempt lower and have caused a return to just below the 166.11 peak. However, the pullback has been deep and may suggest another leg lower first. Thus to see a direct recovery we shall need price to break back above 165.64 and this should cause a test of 164.84-87 at least. It is above this higher resistance that is needed to confirm additional gains above 166.11 and onto 166.80 at least and I suspect to 167.77-97.
Pullbacks are so shallow that the wave structure is tough to recognize. I can see some projected targets around 167.77-97 and then stronger at 168.36-50. (June 19th)
No break of 165.00-05 and thus we are still waiting. If there is to be further losses ā which Iād prefer ā then we require the 165.64 resistance to hold and then a move back below 165.42 and 165.19 would allow a test of the major support between 164.52-74. Only below here and then 164.33 would begin to suggest there could be a stronger pullback lower. Next support at 163.60.
The downside has been destroyed and I am awaiting a stronger reaction to identify the wave structure. However, now only below 163.65-95 would trigger immediate losses. (June 18th)
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
I have reviewed the wave structure and feel there is a chance that 166.11 may well have been Wave iii of Wave āc-. This would imply a correction back to the 50%-58.6% retracement at 164.33-60 before Wave v rallies.
I still think Wave iv is under development and continue to watch the 50%-58.6% retracement at 164.33-60. I note that if 165.19 was Wave a and 166.01 was Wave b then the 138.2%-161.8% projections in Wave c lie between 164.52-74.
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