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Thursday June 21, 2007 - 10:09:55 GMT
Black Swan Capital - www.blackswantrading.com

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Paying Some Attention to the Yen While the Loonie Shadows Crude

Key News
• (Bloomberg) -- The yen traded near the weakest in more than four years versus the dollar on speculation Japanese employees will use their summer bonuses to purchase overseas assets that offer higher yields.
• (Bloomberg) -- Financial shares tripped over higher bond yields, sending the Standard & Poor's 500 Index to its steepest drop in two weeks.
• (WSJ) -- Analysts' confidence in the German economy fell in June amid volatile global equity markets and falling bond prices.

• Key Reports Due (WSJ):
8:30a.m. Initial Jobless Claims. Previous: Unch.
10:00a.m. May Conference Board Leading Economic Indicators. Expected: +0.3%. Previous: -0.5%.
10:00a.m. DJ-BTMU Business Barometer. Previous: -0.2%.
12:00p.m. June Philadelphia Fed Business Index. Expected: 7.0. Previous: 4.2.

Quotable

“My Grandmother is over eighty and still doesn't need glasses. Drinks right out of the bottle.”

-Henny Youngman

FX Trading – Paying Some Attention to the Yen While the Loonie Shadows Crude

You’re probably about sick of hearing us at Black Swan ramble on about excessive risk-taking, easy money, and most of all, the yen carry trade. So I’ll make this brief before moving on to Canada’s dependence on oil.

The fact is, the carry trade is a ticking time bomb waiting to explode on global markets. There’s no denying that. And if you want another opinion, just ask a college professor.

I recommend Dr. Eisuke Sakakibara of Waseda University in Tokyo. I came across some of his recent comments in a Bloomberg article yesterday. He knows what he’s talking about, and he’s got some very credible experience to back himself up. Apparently at one point he became known as “Mr. Yen.”

From 1997-1999 he served as top currency official to Japan’s Ministry of Finance. During his tenure Sakakibara focused his efforts on cutting off the yen’s appreciation versus the dollar.

Now he’s preaching on ridiculously low Japanese interest rates and an insanely cheap yen. He’s warning of an imminent burst of the carry trade bubble.

Any questions?

Canadian dollar, Economy Eying Crude Oil in an Intense Game of Follow-the-Leader

Crude oil at nine-month highs? That hasn’t sat well with U.S. consumers. That’s because they’ve been forking over much of their discretionary income at the gas pumps.

But gasoline stockpiles in the U.S. are finally growing, reversing a trend that shot gas prices to some of its highest levels ever. U.S. consumers are breathing a sigh of relief as prices fade. But our neighbors north of the border aren’t sitting so comfortably.

Canada’s export economy is heavily dependant on the black gold. So much so that the country’s stock markets and currency often mirror big moves in crude prices – over the course of months, weeks, and even single days.

It’s nothing new. And it’s exactly what’s unfolding as I write.

As easily as rising crude oil helped push the Canadian dollar to 30-year highs, it could just as easily make life difficult for the Loonie in its quest for U.S. dollar parity.

It looks as though oil and the entire energy complex need to blow off some steam. Until then the Canadian dollar may have a tough time pushing into new territory. That is unless other areas of Canada’s economy start shakin’ their groove thing.

A Canadian economic report out later this morning is set to reveal retail sales numbers for the month of April. Analysts are anticipating a slightly smaller increase than in March. I think we’ll need to see something a little stronger than expected if the Loonie wants to get a rally started.

Nevertheless, keep a close eye on the leader.

John Ross Crooks III

 

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