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Thursday June 21, 2007 - 10:50:28 GMT
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Forex Research - Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition

Mellon FX Daily 06:10 EDT

Key Points
• USD receives some support from global market weakness. Bond yields will be watched closely
• GBP likely to outperform as market focuses on July rate hike.
• EUR-SEK testing key 9.25 level.
• Canadian retail sales and US Philly Fed index feature today.

Market Outlook

Weakness in US equity markets, higher bond yields and systemic concerns related to yesterday’s auction of mortgage assets from a failed hedge fund are maintaining a sense of apprehension in markets, but so far this has not had much impact on FX. The USD is a little stronger against the EUR and this would continue if bond yields carry on rising today. Otherwise, the natural bias remains to the upside for EUR-USD following Friday’s move through the 100-day MA.

GBP remains firm following yesterday’s MPC minutes, which suggested the likelihood of a July rate hike. This should provide GBP with room for further outperformance in the run-up to that meeting, leaving risk on EUR-GBP to 0.6690 at least. The latest CBI survey was released this morning, with orders and output categories showing strength but price expectations falling back from the 12-yr highs seen last month. The June price balance fell back to the +16 level seen in April after the high +25 number recorded for May. This will provide some degree of comfort to the MPC, although the number remains high and will not be enough to rule out the likelihood of a July rate hike.

The JPY has steadied after yesterday’s choppiness, which saw an aborted corrective attempt. Key was the ability of EUR-JPY to hold on to support in the 165.20-25 area and this will remain significant for short-term JPY sentiment. Correction risk aside, the basic arguments remain negative for the JPY and there is a risk of further pronounced weakness in the weeks ahead.

A big day for the SEK yesterday following the Riksbank’s Monetary Policy Report, which saw significant upgrades to interest rate projections. Key now is whether EUR-SEK can get below 9.25, which has been pivotal to trading during 2007 – it has been as low as 9.2435 this morning. The market may want to take a look at next week’s retail sales report before getting excited any further. Any move below 9.25 would suggest immediate risk down towards 9.18.

Day Ahead
Canada – retail sales data is due today and there is some element of downside risk after the very soft wholesale sales number released yesterday. If weakness is seen it should maintain some support for USD-CAD in the short-term.*

US – the Philly Fed survey is due and should provide further evidence of a recovery in the manufacturing sector. Last week’s NY Fed survey showed a sharp jump up to 25.8 from 8.0, although the Philly Fed index is typically less volatile. Fed survey indices

Data/event EDT Consensus*

US Initial claims (w/e Jun 16) 08.30 323k
US Continuing claims (w/e Jun 9) 08.30 2581k last
CA Retail sales (Apr) m/m 08.30 +1.0%
CA Retail sales ex-autos (Apr) m/m 08.30 +0.5%
US Lead indicators (May) m/m 10.00 +0.2%
US Philly Fed index (Jun) 12.00 6.5

Latest data Actual Consensus*
JP Trade balance (May, sa) ¥788.5bn ¥890bn
FR H’hold consumption (May) m/m -0.8% +0.5%
IT Consumer confidence (Jun) 107.2 109.7
EU PMI manu (Jun, flash est) 55.4 54.8
EU PMI services (Jun, flash est) 58.3 57.1
IT Retail sales (Apr) m/m -0.4% 0.0%
CH ZEW expectations (Jun) -0.1 0.0 last
GB CBI output prices (Jun) +16 +25 last
* Consensus unless stated

©2007, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.
Ian Gunner 44 20 7163 5996 06.40 EDT Monday May 31 2005


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