Monday June 25, 2007 - 04:19:44 GMT
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Daily Analysis for USDCHFPrice:
Resistance: 1.2317 ... 1.2340 ... 1.2360 ... 1.2397
Support: 1.2280 ... 1.2268 ... 1.2235 ... 1.2205
While 1.2317-30 caps there is still risk of losses to 1.2148 but watch the 1.2225-42 support area first
Earlier break lower was seen than expected but this does fit in with the MT view. Normally this should move to the 1.2146 area. However, with bullish divergences forming in both hourly and 4-hour charts we should be just a little cautious. Note earlier support at 1.2225-42 and any reaction higher from here that moves back above 1.2317 would tend to suggest that we see a pullback higher first. Note pivot resistance at 1.2360 and above there we should see a cap develop between 1.2397-1.2424.
The drop to new lows puts paid to any thoughts of seeing 1.2483 and implies a more bearish move. Therefore, only back above 1.2426 would begin to produce a more bullish stance for 1.2576+. (June 25th)
Loss of 1.2330-37 has generated losses to 1.2281 thus far. In the larger picture this should imply losses to 1.2210-20 and probably the 1.2128-48 area. However, before getting too bearish we do have to note that bullish divergences have developed in both hourly and 4-hour charts and thus we do need to exercise just a little caution. There is earlier support around 1.2225-42 which should be observed. Break of this area keeps the downward pressure intact for 1.2128-46.
Fridayâ€™s losses do put the bearish stance more in the driving seat. While we do have to be cautious of support around 1.2220-40 overall the 1.2128-48 area appears to be the next target. (June 25th)
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
Fridayâ€™s losses came earlier than expected but are in line with the MT view of a test to the prior Wave [b] at 1.2146. While there is a small risk of a minor projection at 1.2225-42 holding â€“ this being the 161.8%-176.4% projection in Wave c, I shall retain the 1.2148 target and also note a 261.8% projection in Wave c is at 1.2128.
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