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Monday June 25, 2007 - 10:38:56 GMT
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Forex Research - Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition

Mellon FX Daily 05:50 EDT

Key Points
• EUR-USD pulls back from highs as equities weaken, FOMC eyed. JPY firmer.
• Further GBP outperformance looks likely short-term.
• NZD recovers after Friday’s late losses.
• US existing home sales today’s main feature.

Market Outlook

EUR-USD was softer for a while in Europe, having spent the Asian session close to the highs seen on Friday – in fact a new high of 1.3473 was touched overnight. There is not much news flow behind recent movement. Last week was all about EURUSD building upon the recovery through its 100-day moving average seen the previous Friday. 1.3485-1.3550 is the main short-term resistance area and 1.3485 could now hold price action ahead of Thursday’s FOMC meeting outcome, where the FOMC will most likely acknowledge the pick-up in activity seen over the past couple of months.

Much will depend upon the tone of the data released between now and Thursday. Existing home sales is due today (see below), new home sales and consumer confidence numbers are out on Tuesday and durable orders follows on Wednesday. Question marks may remain over housing, but durables should be fairly resilient if there is consistency with other evidence on the manufacturing sector. Supports are at 1.3435 and 1.3368 (now the 100-day MA) and these could be put to the test if the FOMC uses firm language.

Weaker equity markets (again related to the odour of systemic risk generated by the Bear Stearns issue) have pulled the JPY crosses back from recent highs, although the rate of decline in equity markets will need to continue to significantly suppress investor risk appetites. Otherwise, the JPY is likely to weaken afresh.

GBP remains buoyant following last week’s MPC minutes and further outperformance looks likely in the short-term. Cable touched 2.00 in Asia before rising above that level for a while in Europe and a further moderate advance looks likely in the next day or two. Whether it holds will depend in part upon this week’s numbers on mortgage approvals. EUR-GBP retains risk down to 0.6690.

The NZD fell back sharply to 0.7604 from 0.7660 in the US afternoon on Friday amidst rumours of RBNZ intervention. The RBNZ declined to comment on the rumour and the NZD has managed to slowly claw back these losses in Asia, at one point touching a fresh high at 0.7687. As long as equity markets do not fall precipitately today, boosting the JPY, the NZD will most likely remain supported.

Day Ahead
US – existing home sales continued to weaken last month and with pending home sales also heading lower there are few signs as yet that demand has bottomed out. After the scale of the falls registered over the past two months (existing home sales were down 2.6% in April and 7.9% in March) the natural volatility of this data series suggests the risk of a m/m rise. However, several months of stronger numbers will be required to suggest a turn in the trend.

Diary
Data/event EDT Consensus*

US Existing home sales (May) 10.00 5.97m
JP CSPI (May) y/y 19.50 +1.1% last

Latest data Actual Consensus*
DE Consumer confidence (Jul) 8.4 7.8
SE Trade balance (May) SEK9.7bn SEK12.5bn
* Consensus unless stated

©2007, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.
Ian Gunner 44 20 7163 5996 06.40 EDT Monday May 31 2005

 

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