Tuesday June 26, 2007 - 03:01:34 GMT
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Daily Analysis for USDJPY
Resistance: 123.75 ... 124.28 ... 124.54 ... 1.2482
Support: 123.30 ... 123.09 ... 122.78 ... 122.46
Care â€“ waiting for breaks â€“ I prefer higher but would respect a drop through 123.09-30
The drop below 123.40 concerns although this has stalled at 123.30. If we are to see a final move higher to 124.28 (max 124.60-80) then we need a move back above the 123.70-80 pivot area. Once through the odds favor a test of 124.28. Take care here. Only above extends to 124.60-82 but should cap.
We continue to edge higher towards the 124.28 target but without the comfort of a bearish divergence. Any move above would extend to 124.60-82 â€“ watch this also but above that would see 125.79 attract. (June 22nd)
Losses have reached 123.30 but until 123.09 breaks the short term picture remains bullish. Thus watch the 123.09-30 area closely. Breach would signal losses to 122.78 at least but I think it may just have the power to move through 122.46 also and to the 122.07 level which should allow a pullback ahead of a dip to the 121.48 corrective low.
We need to hold off from any bearish stance until there is greater proof of reversal. Below the 121.48 corrective low would be a good signal while below the 120.76 daily low would break the uptrend. (June 18th)
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
Price is edging higher though a small divergence in projections is developing with the 124.28 area implied by some long and short term targets while the Wave v of Wave â€“c- has 66.7%-76.4% projection in Wave v lies at 124.60-82.
While a 61.8% retracement of the 123.09-124.13 move supports in a possible Wave b of Wave v we can still see higher. Once we get to 124.28 take care as reversal can occur at any time with the maximum expected at this point to be the 124.60-82 area.
The correction has been deep and if we see loss of the 123.09 Wave iv low then the risk is for a move down to the 121.48 Wave b low. Until breach the risk still remains higher to the 124.28 target at least.
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