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Tuesday June 26, 2007 - 10:25:44 GMT
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Forex Research - Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition

Mellon FX Daily 06:10 EDT

Key Points
• JPY corrects higher, but this is likely to be short-lived unless further gross equity market weakness is seen.
• EUR-USD initially affected by EUR-JPY sell-off – 1.3430 support.
• US new home sales, house prices and consumer confidence feature today – NZ consumer confidence also due.

Market Outlook

Momentum against the JPY faded a little further overnight after Japanese finance minister Omi warned the market against taking one-way bets. There was nothing really new in these comments, although the timing of the interjection, coupled with recent rise in Swiss rates has led the market into believing that moves are afoot to snuff out any further development in carry trades. However, at this stage it merely looks like an ordinary correction rather than the start of a full-scale rout. For the latter to happen there will most likely need to be a more pronounced retrenchment in global equity markets.

The move below 165.95 on EUR-JPY is a short-term negative, but below the 164.70-165.00 area will be needed to cause a further substantial shakeout in positioning. EUR-USD remains fairly quiet and has remained shy of the first short-term resistance level at 1.3485 – helped by a weaker EUR-JPY. Below 1.3430 would suggest some further intra-day weakness. USD-JPY has some risk down to 122.25 while below 123.10-20. The USD should maintain support ahead of Thursday’s FOMC outcome, although the tone of the data (see below) will also be important.

Day Ahead
US – new home sales, house prices and consumer confidence data are today’s main features. New home sales bounced back last month, although today’s numbers will provide evidence about how genuine that was. Last month saw a sharp rise in sales and a big fall in the median home price, which appeared to suggest that builders were slashing prices to clear stock – not good for builders profits but helpful for an eventual recovery in the residential construction sector. However, much of the 16.2% rise in total home sales was driven by strength in the South (+27.8%) and that particular region tends to have lower-priced homes. It is perhaps of no great surprise then that the median price of the homes that were actually sold in April (i.e. lower priced homes) fell so dramatically m/m. One positive way of looking at the numbers is to say that the magnitude of the rebound in sales in April suggests that the weakness in Q1 was exaggerated, but more evidence is required. Consumer confidence will also be watched closely to see whether it reflects the weakness in the Michigan measure of sentiment. House prices are likely to decline further in the short-term.

New Zealand – quarterly consumer confidence data is due and given the further rate hikes pursued in April and earlier this month, it will be interesting to see how negatively sentiment has been hit.

Data/event EDT Consensus*

US Chain store sls (w/e Jun 23) w/w 07.45 -0.1% last
US Redbook sls (w/e Jun 23) m/m 08.55 -0.8% last
US S&P/CS house prices (Apr) y/y 09.00 -2.2%
NZ Consumer confidence (Q2) 09.00 117.7 last
US New home sales (May) 10.00 925k
US Consumer confidence (Jun) 10.00 105.5
US ABC consumer conf (w/e Jun 24) 17.00 -9 last
NZ Trade balance (May) 18.45 NZ$50m
AU RBA’s Lowe speaks 19.00
JP Retail sales (May) y/y 19.50 -0.5%
JP Small business confidence (Jun) 00.00 49.3 last

Latest data Actual Consensus*
JP CSPI (May) y/y +1.4% +1.1% last
DE Import prices (May) y/y +0.6% +0.6%
SE Consumer confidence (Jun) 21.0 19.1
SE Manufacturing confidence (Jun) 9 9
IT Business confidence (Jun) 96.3 96.4
EU Current account (Apr) -€4.0bn €6.7bnR last
* Consensus unless stated

©2007, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.
Ian Gunner 44 20 7163 5996 06.40 EDT Monday May 31 2005


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