Wednesday June 27, 2007 - 04:00:19 GMT
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Daily Analysis for GBPUSDPrice:
Resistance: 2.0000 ... 2.0015 ... 2.0040 ... 2.0074
Support: 1.9950 ... 1.9923 ... 1.9910 ... 1.9885
Failure to break 2.0014 seems to point to a larger pullback lower to 1.9772-1.9818
Still no break of 2.0014 and this is beginning to point to a pullback lower. However, we cannot forget that no key support has broken yet but if we are to see any direct gains then we should wait for a break of yesterdayâ€™s high at 2.0015. If seen then this should cause follow-through to 2.0036-40 at least and probably the 2.0074 level. Take care here as this could cause a pullback. Next resistance is then close to the 2.0131 high.
The rally has pushed through lower resistance and thus does appear to argue for a direct move to 2.0074 and 2.0131. To be certain a break above 2.0015 confirms. (June 25th)
While the 2.0015 resistance has failed to break neither have we seen a breach of any key low. However, with a bearish divergence forming the bias does appear to be turning for a correction lower. For this we need breach of the 1.9950-55 area and once seen this should allow losses to 1.9910-23 at least and while this could cause a pullback it should mean losses further out. Next support is at 1.9885-90 followed by 1.9852 and 1.9818.
Price has struggled to move above 2.0015 and there is risk of a correction. However, conservatively this should be restricted to the 1.9772-1.9818 area. Only below 1.9714-52 causes deeper losses below 1.9621. (June 27th)
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
The break above 1.9946 has confused the wave structure. The breach does seem bullish but I am finding this tough to recognize the structure with the correction from 1.9946 being so shallow. Thus I want to observe this for today watching a small projection at 2.0012 where a possible minor Wave v has projection by 61.8% and where Wave c has extended by 223.6%.
Note the 261.8% projection in Wave c comes in at 2.0074 which also matches a corrective higher early on in the decline from 2.0131.
Any direct retracement from here would imply a 50%-61.8% retracement between 1.9764-1.9808.
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