Thursday June 28, 2007 - 03:46:26 GMT
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Daily Analysis for AUDUSDPrice:
Resistance: 0.8416 ... 0.8450 ... 0.8475 ... 0.8510
Support: 0.8370 ... 0.8354 ... 0.8331 ... 0.8319
While 0.8412-16 caps there is still room for losses below 0.8354 and to 0.8319-31
Losses developed quite nicely reaching the lower target at 0.8355. The pullback is reaching critical resistance at 0.8412-16 and I feel this will cap for a last move back to 0.8319-31 which should support for a renewed attack higher. Only an earlier break above 0.8416-20 would trigger immediate gains back to the 0.8475 high at least and possibly to the 0.8510 high.
It looks as if we should see a move back to 0.8320-30 but from there the move up to 0.8594 remains intact. Only a direct break back above yesterdayâ€™s 0.8510 high reverts to a direct rally. (June 27th)
Quite nicely the decline reached the 0.8355 target and I still see the current rally as a fairly deep correction and while the 0.8412-16 area caps the downside still remains the way to go. A move back below 0.8370-80 would allow a test of the 0.8354 and while this could cause a small correction the ultimate target is in the 0.8319-31 area which I expect to hold for a larger reversal higher. Next support is then found at 0.8282-88.
The peak at 0.8510 is turning the probability of a retest of the 0.8320-30 support. However, this should be as far as we see. Thus only below 0.8310 signals losses down to 0.8244-78 at least. (June 27th)
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
The peak at 0.8510 represents a 23.6% expansion in Wave [b]. Also note the 38.2% expansion at 0.8530. Overall I feel the first Wave i has been seen to 0.8423 and while Wave ii remains below the 66.7% retracement at 0.8481 we should see Wave iii develop towards the 0.8355-77 area. Overall this pattern suggests a move back to retest the 0.8331 Wave efa low and possibly a little further with a 50% retracement in Wave [b] at 0.8319.
The Wave iii reached the 176.4% projection at 0.8354 and we are seeing what I believe to be a 58.6% correction in Wave iv to the 0.8412-16 area. While this caps a 61.8% projection in Wave v lies at 0.8316 while we should remember the 50% retracement in Wave [b] at 0.8319.
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