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Thursday June 28, 2007 - 10:53:53 GMT
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Black Swan Capital -- Currency Currents

Thursday 28 June 2007 EDT

Key News
• BANKS STRUGGLED to find buyers for several takeover-related debt offerings. Easy credit has been the driving force behind the rash of buyouts, and investors' reluctance to buy risky debt could put the boom in jeopardy. -- WSJ
• (Bloomberg) -- Germany's unemployment rate fell to the lowest level in 12 years in June as growth in Europe's largest economy encouraged companies to invest and hire.

• Key Reports Due (WSJ):
8:30a.m. Initial Jobless Claims. Expected: -9K. Previous: +10K.
8:30a.m 1Q GDP, Final. Expected: +0.8%. Previous: +0.6%.
8:30a.m 1Q Corp Profits, revised. Previous: +1.0%.
10:00a.m. May Conference Board Help-Wanted Index. Previous: 29.
10:00a.m. DJ-BTMU Business Barometer. Previous: Unch.
11:00a.m. June Kansas City Fed Mfg Index. Previous: 20.
2:15p.m. Two-Day FOMC meeting ends; interest rate decision expected. Previous: Unch.

“Security is the mother of danger and the grandmother of destruction.”

-Thomas Fuller

FX Trading – Your Thursday Forex Melting Pot

Does anyone else’s neck hurt?

All this up and down, back and forth stuff makes me think we’re on some type of whacked-out carnival ride.

The British pound is dancing with the $2 per pound level like a Mexican jumping bean. It’s back over that mark today as housing prices in the region increased in June at their fastest pace in nearly two and a half years.

That’s got traders salivating in anticipation of higher Bank of England interest rates. The central bank’s main man Mervyn King is due to speak later today. It’s expected he’ll give something nice and juicy to chew on ahead of the bank’s meeting next week to discuss monetary policy.

The yen strung together a couple of hugely positive sessions, but are we all done? Is that all the yen can muster? -- Hardly. Although a potentially slower than expected Japanese economy sure won’t help out efforts aimed at unwinding some of the carry trade.

News out overnight showed a slowdown in Japanese industrial production for a third month in a row. The Bank of Japan has made it clear they’re closely watching the data before making any decisions on future interest rate increases.

Even though Japan’s economy ain’t all that bad anymore, until consensus expectations change and the Bank of Japan gets down to business, traders will need some other catalyst to drive the yen higher.

High-yielding currencies like the Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar moved sharply off their highs in light of carry trade reduction. But they’ve already turned it around and are locked in again on recent highs. Should these levels prove formidable resistance we could see renewed selling that would send these high-yielders back down, farther and faster than before.

Who knows, that might be enough to induce a fresh wave of yen buying.

The Canadian dollar is still mostly wrapped up with crude oil prices in a game of follow the leader. As you can see in the chart, the Loonie is still in a corrective channel since touching 30-year highs against the dollar.

Now I’m no energy expert. Heck, I don’t even play one on TV. But I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night.

Just kidding, I stayed in the comfort of my own home, like usual, but I did read an interesting article that spoke about Canada’s oil biz. The piece mentioned the importance of increasing pipeline capacity in Canada. Why? Well because U.S. oil refinery demand for Western Canadian crude oil is set to double by 2015.

Yikes! That’s still a good number of years out, but it’s stuff like that indirectly driving Canada’s dollar toward U.S. dollar parity.

The euro is still struggling with key resistance; its near-term performance will likely hinge upon the U.S. dollar.

Due out today in the U.S. are final figures for first quarter GDP. Not a whole lot new expected from that report, just confirmation of measly 0.8% growth.

But later in the day is the FOMC interest rate announcement. I’m pretty confident the Fed stays put and attempts to signal no bias toward either tightening or easing its monetary policy. After all, Ben Bernanke and his buddies still have to juggle a crappy housing market and the economy’s various other less-than-stellar growth components -- this all while keeping inflation expectations in check.

The buck has avoided significant across-the-board selling recently. But there’s a lot leaning on its bad side.

John Ross Crooks III
Black Swan Capital


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