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Thursday June 28, 2007 - 10:57:07 GMT
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Forex Research - Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition

Mellon FX Daily 06:30 EDT

Key Points
• US equity market recovery leads to weaker JPY, but room for further volatility in the short-term before conditions truly stabilise.
• MPC members offer few overall clues about outcome of next week’s meeting – market will continue to look for rate hike.
• Fed meeting in focus today.

Market Outlook

A late stabilisation in US equity markets helped to shore up the fragile global sentiment that was developing yesterday. EURJPY in particular has managed to bounce back. However, patching up the recent deterioration in sentiment may take some time and there is clearly room for further volatility in the short-term. We would anticipate that the situation will eventually stabilise and that the JPY will weaken afresh. However, as noted yesterday, we will probably need to see a week or two free of headlines that tweak systemic risk fears before a sense of calm can truly return. Key levels to look at on EUR-JPY come in at 166.20 and 165.00. A break of either level would reveal near-term directional bias.

The stabilisation in EUR-JPY has helped EUR-USD to recover, although thus far it has failed to push through resistance at 1.3480-85 and this may remain a tough prospect today. Global markets will continue to drive FX today, although there will also be some focus on the Fed’s policy statement. There are a number of conflicting developments for the Fed to consider (see below for preview) but the basic conclusion of upside risk to CPI is likely to be maintained.

GBP was boosted early on by a stronger than expected Nationwide house price index, although key for the housing market this week will be Friday’s mortgage approvals data. This has been weakening in recent months and expectations about what may happen to housing over coming months will be affected by whether or not such weakness has continued. MPC members have also been testifying this morning where the focus was on comments made by those who voted in favour of steady rates in June. The market was on the lookout for signs that they will be ready to change their minds and vote for a rate hike next week, although no such assurances were forthcoming. Most of the comments were merely aimed at showing what they were thinking about at the June meeting rather than what they would do in July. For now the market will continue to discount the likelihood of at least one them changing their mind and voting for a hike next week. EUR-GBP retains some risk down to 0.6690 ahead of that outcome.

Day Ahead
US – the FOMC statement is likely to retain an overall hawkish tone with regard to the inflation outlook, even though they may acknowledge the fact that current core inflation readings have softened a little. Ongoing weakness in housing will be noted, but they will also highlight the pick-up in activity evident in a variety of numbers such as the ISM surveys. As long as activity is holding up well in an environment where capacity usage is already high, the Fed will continue to see upside risks to the inflation outlook.

Japan – a big night for releases with CPI, labour market, and consumer spending all due. Recent economic data out of Japan has been disappointing and even BoJ rhetoric about the need for rate normalisation has become less forthright. Some surprisingly strong numbers will be required to prompt any market rethink about the current situation. CPI and consumer spending will be the major focal points.

Data/event EDT Consensus*

US GDP (Q1, final est) saar 08.30 +0.8%
US Core PCE prices (Q1) saar 08.30 +2.2%
US Initial claims (w/e Jun 23) 08.30 314k
US Continuing claims (w/e Jun 16) 08.30 2523k last
CA Industrial PI (May) m/m 08.30 +0.1%
CA Raw materials PI (May) m/m 08.30 +0.7%
US FOMC meeting outcome 14.15 unch
FR Unemployment rate (May) 18.00 8.1%
FR ILO job seekers (May) m/m 18.00 -20k
NZ GDP (Q1) q/q 18.45 +1.0%
JP CPI Tokyo ex-fresh food (Jun) y/y 19.30 +0.1%
JP CPI Nat ex-fresh food (May) y/y 19.30 -0.1%
JP CPI Nat ex-food/energy (May) y/y 19.30 -0.2% last
JP Unemployment rate (May) 19.30 3.9%
JP Job-to-applicants ratio (May) 19.30 1.05
JP Overall PCE (May) y/y 19.30 +0.6%
AU Private sector credit (May) m/m 21.30 +1.1%

Latest data Actual Consensus*
NZ Current account (Q1) -NZ$2.2bn -NZ$2.45bn
NZ Current acc as % of GDP (Q1) -8.5% -8.6%
JP Ind prod (May, prel) m/m -0.4% +0.9%
NZ Business confidence (Jun) -37.2 -48.2 last
GB N’wide house prices (Jun) m/m +1.1% +0.5%
SE Retail sales (May) m/m +0.2% +1.0%
DE Unemployment (Jun) -37k -20k
DE Employment (May) +8k +12kR last
EU M3 (May) y/y +10.7% +10.4%
EU M3 (May) 3m y/y +10.7% +10.6%
EU Private sector lending (May) y/y +10.3% +10.3% last
NO Unemployment rate (Apr, sa) 2.7% 2.6%
NO Unemployment rate (Jun, nsa) 1.8% 1.8%
IT CPI (Jun, prel) y/y +1.7% +1.6%
* Consensus unless stated

©2007, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.
Ian Gunner 44 20 7163 5996 06.40 EDT Monday May 31 2005


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