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Thursday June 28, 2007 - 15:09:03 GMT
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Forex and Commodity Market Commentary and Analysis (28 June 2007)

The euro appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.3480 level and was supported around the $1.3440 level. Technically, today’s intraday low was right around the 61.8% retracement of the move from $1.3550 to $1.3260. Traders await today’s Federal Open Market Committee interest rate decision and policy statement with most traders focusing on the word “elevated” in the Fed’s previous statement. The Fed is likely to keep the federal funds target rate unchanged at 5.25% and continue to refer to elevated inflation pressures but there could be some room for the Fed to acknowledge some price pressures have been easing. Data released in the U.S. today saw Q1 GDP growth up 0.7% while the GDP chain price index was upwardly revised to 4.2% with the core GDP index up 3.2%. Moreover, core PCE prices excluding food and energy came in at 2.4%, above the Fed’s perceived comfort zone. Other data released today saw weekly initial jobless claims fall 13,000 to 313,000 while continuing jobless claims were off 27,000 to 2.49 million. In eurozone news, the EMU-13 money supply expanded 10.7% y/y in May, up from April’s 10.4% y/y pace. Most traders believe the European Central Bank will lift interest rates by +25bps or 50bps in the coming months. German data released today saw the jobless rate fall 37,000 m/m in June. Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.3375 level.

¥/ CNY

The yen depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the ¥123.35 level and was supported around the ¥122.75 level. Technically, today’s intraday high was right around the 23.6% retracement of the move from ¥120.75 to ¥124.15. Bank of Japan Governor Fukui talked about interest rates today saying “if left too long at levels that do not reflect economic fundamentals, they could distort the distribution of resources and also hinder the economic recovery” but added they will only be adjusted gradually. Data released in Japan overnight saw May industrial production fall 0.4% m/m, the third consecutive monthly decline. Ministry of finance member Fujii refuted media reports Japan is considering a public company that would managed foreign exchange reserves similar to what China is doing. The Nikkei 225 stock index gained 0.46% to close at ¥17,932.27. Dollar bids are cited around the ¥122.05 level. The euro gained ground vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested offers around the ¥165.95 level and was supported around the ¥165.15 level. The British pound and Swiss franc rallied vis-à-vis the yen as the crosses tested offers around the ¥246.75 and ¥100.30 levels, respectively.

The British pound moved higher vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested offers around the US$ 2.0040 level and was supported around the $1.9970 level. Sterling reached its highest level since 1 May despite some dovish testimony from three Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee members who indicated more data need to released before they’d support another rate hike. In contrast, BoE Governor King reported “The upside risks are that intended price pressures are the result of pressures on capacity, which surveys have suggested have built up over the past year, or higher inflation expectations. The MPC will continue to monitor closely these indicators of pricing intentions, as well as nominal developments in the economy more generally. There are the upside risks that perhaps inflation expectations, the pricing environment has changed, not massively, but just by enough to make us think that when volatility of energy prices has settled down me may see inflation above the target.” Most traders believe the MPC will lift the repo rate another +50bps to +75bps this year. Data released in the U.K. today saw Nationwide June house prices up 1.1% m/m, the largest gain since December while Land Registry reported house prices were up 0.7% m/m in May in England and Wales. Cable bids are cited around the US$ 1.9925 level. The euro moved lower vis-à-vis the British pound as the single currency tested bids around the ₤0.6715 level and was capped around the ₤0.6735 level.


The Swiss franc appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the CHF 1.2265 level and was capped around the CHF 1.2305 level. Most traders believe Swiss National Bank will raise interest rates by 25bps or 50bps in September. Dollar offers are cited around the CHF 1.2350 level. The euro and British pound gained marginal ground vis-à-vis the Swiss franc as the crosses tested offers around the CHF 1.6555 and CHF 2.4630 levels, respectively.


The Australian dollar moved solidly higher vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the Aussie tested offers around the US$ 0.8470 level and was supported around the $0.8375 level. Technically, today’s intraday low was right around the 38.2% retracement of the move from $0.8160 to $0.8510. Data released in Australia today saw job vacancies up 3.9% q/q in the May quarter. Australian dollar bids are cited around the US$ 0.8335 level. The New Zealand dollar gained ground vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the kiwi tested offers around the US$ 0.7700 figure and was supported around the $0.7605 level. New Zealand dollar bids are cited around the US$ 0.7595 level.


The Canadian dollar appreciated sharply vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the C$ 1.0605 level and was capped around the C$ 1.0715 level. Data released in Canada today saw the May producer price index fall 0.5% m/m – the first decline in six months – and was up 3.0% y/y. Also, the raw materials price index was off 0.2% m/m and up 1.9% y/y. Mergers and acquisitions-related activity involving Russian miner OAO Norlisk Nickel’s acquisition of Canada’s LionOre Mining International pushed the loonie higher. U.S. dollar offers are cited around the C$ 1.0595 level.

Gold/ Silver

Gold moved higher vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the yellow metal tested offers around the US$ 649.10 level and was supported around the $643.25 level. The U.S. dollar’s intraday losses and apprehension about the FOMC’s policy statement added to gold’s gains, as did gains in oil prices. Silver appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar as the pair tested offers around the US$ 12.47 level and was supported around the US$ 12.22 level.

Crude Oil

Crude oil appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as light, sweet NYMEX crude oil futures for August delivery tested offers around the US$ 70.43 level and were supported around the $68.95 level. Data released yesterday by the Energy Information Administration in the U.S. reported that motor fuel inventories were off 5.5% from last year’s levels.


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