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Monday July 2, 2007 - 10:56:03 GMT
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Forex Research - Mellon FX Daily – U.S. Edition

Mellon FX Daily – U.S. Edition 6:05 EDT

Key Points
• Weak USD theme spilling over from Friday.
• No surprises in Tankan survey
• GBP should retain good support ahead of Thursday’s MPC outcome.
• US ISM manufacturing features today.

Market Outlook

No real surprises in the Tankan, with most of the main numbers coming in very close to market expectations. As a consequence, the JPY had a quiet overnight session, although it did strengthen for a while in early European trading. This could develop a little further this morning, although the overall weak JPY tone is likely to remain intact. Support on EUR-JPY is at 166.00, while USD-JPY support runs from 122.75 down to 122.25.

USD weakness has been the main theme overnight, as it was for much of Friday. The trigger for this latest bout of USD weakness was the ability of EUR-USD to break through 1.3485, which marked a break of the consolidation/correction pattern in place over the past couple of months. Friday’s session was slightly unusual – initially it merely seemed to be generalized EUR strength and the fact that it happened on the last day of both the quarter and half-year suggested some need for caution. One would want to see this strength being sustained over the next couple of days before getting too excited, although the price action this morning has again been positive. The June 5 high of 1.3555 gave way early on and as long as EUR-USD stays above there it would suggest that upside momentum remains intact. The tone of today’s US ISM data will influence where EUR-USD settles later on. Support is now at 1.3485-1.3500, while next resistance is at 1.3610-25.

EUR-GBP has been lifted by this latest period of EUR-USD strength, although upside is likely to be fairly limited ahead of Thursday’s MPC outcome. This morning’s PMI manufacturing survey in the UK provided little in the way of new information, but it did affirm the elevated producer price backdrop that has been troubling the MPC. The output price component of the PMI was 56.8 and only slightly shy of the 56.9 all time high seen in February and May.

The latest period of USD weakness has seen the higher yielding currencies again doing well, with the NZD leading the way. There is not a lot on the chart ahead of 0.80, although the latest developments are likely to be frowned upon by the RBNZ, who said last week that they would intervene if the NZD ventured to extreme levels they thought unjustified given underlying fundamentals. Once again the NZD is in that sort of territory, so it would seem to be a matter of time before the RBNZ acts again. However, as they have found out recently, it is difficult to counter market sentiment when other policy levers at their disposal (i.e. rates) are standing against them. Interest rate arguments will need to falter to truly puncture NZD sentiment. Retail sales next week will be key in this regard. Strength or weakness in that data will determine whether NZD can strength can extend further. At some point, sales should weaken and when it does finally happen it is likely to spell trouble for the NZD.

Day Ahead
US – the ISM for the manufacturing sector is due today and the higher ISMs recorded over the past couple of months have been at the foundation of the improvement in sentiment about US economic activity. Whether or not these higher ISM levels have been sustained will be key for market thinking about the US. The ISM for non-manufacturing is due on Thursday. A solid ISM does seem likely today.

Data/event EDT Consensus*

US ISM manu (Jun) 10.00 55.0
JP Monetary base (Jun) y/y 19.50 -4.2%
AU Retail trade (May) m/m 21.30 +0.7%
AU Building approvals (May) m/m 21.30 -1.4%

Latest data Actual Consensus*
JP Tankan – large manu (Q2) 23 23
JP Tankan – large manu outlook 22 22
JP Tankan – large non-manu (Q2) 22 22
JP Tankan – large non-manu outlook 23 23
JP Capex plans (Q2) +7.7% +9.0%
JP Labour cash earnings (May) y/y -0.6% +0.2%
JP Overtime earnings (May) y/y +1.1% +1.5% last
SE PMI manu (Jun) 60.3 59.1
TR GDP (Q1) y/y +6.8% +5.8%
ES PMI manu (Jun) 55.1 53.3 last
CH PMI manu (Jun) 62.8 59.9
IT PMI manu (Jun) 54.0 55.2
FR PMI manu (Jun) 53.8 54.6
DE PMI manu (Jun) 57.3 56.4
EU PMI manu (Jun) 55.6 55.4
GB PMI manu (Jun) 54.3 54.7
GB Index of services (Apr) 3m/3m +1.0% +0.8%
* Consensus unless stated

©2007, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.


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