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Tuesday July 3, 2007 - 10:56:27 GMT
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Forex Research - Mellon FX Daily – U.S. Edition

Mellon FX Daily – U.S. Edition 6:20 EDT

Key Points
• EUR-USD retreats slightly in Europe, but important technical advances have been sustained for now.
• New high on cable also hurting general USD sentiment.
• Softer retail sales report hampers the AUD.
• US pending home sales today’s main feature.

Market Outlook

The USD has stabilised a little during the European morning, although the general move against the USD continues to be the most striking development at the present time. There was another potentially significant session for EUR-USD yesterday, taking out levels at 1.3555 and 1.3610-25. The April 27 high at 1.3683 is the next target and technicians will no doubt be excited by the possibility that EUR-USD has now entered a fresh up-cycle. This is a pattern that has been evident since October, with the rally from 1.2484 on Oct 13 to 1.3370 on Dec 4 (+7.1%). That particular upmove was followed by a period of consolidation bottoming on Jan 12 at 1.2865. The next upmove was from 1.2865 to 1.3683 on April 27 (+6.4%), although it was not until the 1.3260 level broke on February 27 that the period of consolidation (from Dec 4) was truly over. EUR-USD had been consolidating since April 27 until 1.3485 broke on Friday, reaching a bottom of 1.3264 on June 14 during this period. A 6.4% gain from 1.3264 would suggest 1.4112.

If there is any comfort for the USD in this so-called ‘repeat cycle’ analysis, it is that the second advance was not as great as the first and this could be taken as some kind of evidence about overall momentum loss. However, the fact that the last move stopped at 1.3684 may merely have been due to it being in close proximity to the Dec 30 2004 high of 1.3670. In general, we are yet to be fully convinced about the sudden arguments against the USD. US growth prospects are improving and the risk of intermittent disruptions to global markets would also work in the USD’s favour. There is also a possibility that the USD is being temporarily depressed by concerns about possible terrorist acts on July 4 given recent events in the UK. However, for the moment, momentum is against the USD and upside risk will remain on EUR-USD until there is a move back below the 1.3450-85 area. Below 1.3550 would create some initial doubt.

Adding to the USD negative tone has been the ability of cable to breach the April high of 2.0134 and as long as it stays above that level there will be upside risk. Today’s US pending home sales data will need to be very strong to offer support to the USD.

Weaker than expected data out of Australia helped to pull the AUD back from the higher levels seen yesterday. The disappointing 0.1% m/m decline in retail sales reported for May was supplemented by a downward revision to the April data from +0.1% to -0.3%. This will support the unchanged rate outcome already expected at tonight’s RBA policy announcement. In a generally weaker USD environment, the AUD has so far showed only limited weakness and key for direction today will be which level breaks first – yesterday’s high at 0.8599 or the overnight pullback lows in the 0.8550-55 area.

Day Ahead
US – pending home sales are due and in theory (as the name suggests) should be a good lead indicator for the situation in the housing market. It follows that without a pick-up in this series, absent so far (see chart), it will be difficult to have any optimism about a housing market recovery.

Data/event EDT Consensus*
US Chain store sls (w/e Jun 30) w/w 07.45 -0.7% last
US Redbook sls (w/e Jun 30) m/m 08.55 -1.0% last
TR CPI (Jun) y/y 09.30 +8.9%
US Pending home sales (May) m/m 10.00 +0.6%
US Factory orders (May) m/m 10.00 -1.0%
US ABC consumer conf (w/e Jul 1) 17.00 -12 last
AU RBA rate announcement 19.30 unch
AU Trade balance (May) 21.30 -A$1.2bn

Latest data Actual Consensus*
JP Monetary base (Jun) y/y -4.1% -4.1%
AU Retail trade (May) m/m -0.1% +0.7%
AU Building approvals (May) m/m -5.6% -1.4%
CH CPI (Jun) y/y +0.6% +0.7%
NO PMI manu (Jun) 62.0 65.1
EU PPI (May) y/y +2.3% +2.4%
EU Unemployment rate (May) 7.0% 7.0%
* Consensus unless stated

©2007, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the
accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions
and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.


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