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Tuesday July 3, 2007 - 12:16:27 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com

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FX Thoughts for the day - Evening - 03-July-2007....1141 GMT

EURO, JAP YEN and EURO-YEN
---------------------------
Read our current comments and trade recommendations on EUR-USD, USD-JPY and EUR-JPY by registering at
http://www.kshitij.com/fxthoughts/fxthoughts.shtml#register

Our comments on Dollar-Swiss, Sterling Pound and Australian Dollar are given below
---------------------


USD-CHF @ 1.2171/76….…… Sell a Rally
------------------------------------
R: 1.2220 / 1.2260
S: 1.2140 / 1.2110 / 1.2080
USD-CHF has had a sharp bounce during the day and the pair is correcting its sharp fall, which has been seen in the last few days since topping out at 1.2478 (14-June). The bounce would face immediate Resistances at 1.2180 and then near 1.2220. On the downside the Support is at 1.2140 and then at 1.2110. The bias for the pair is bearish and rally to 1.2220 should be used to sell with a stop above 1.2260.



GBP-USD @ 2.0149/53.......Correcting Currently
------------------------------------------------
R: 2.0170 / 2.0210
S: 2.0116 / 2.0070
GBP-USD has been holding on to its bullish tone and the pair hit a high of 2.0198 before coming off slightly. Currently a decline towards 2.0100 once again cannot be ruled out in the next couple of days, however, that decline (if seen) would be profit taking in nature. The up move is likely to begin again after that.

For today the Support is at 2.0116, the statistically projected Max Low for the day. A break below that could result in a dip towards 2.0070. On the upside the Resistance is at 2.0170 and then at 2.0210. The pair is likely to continue to correct later today, however sharp dips should be used to buy.



AUD-USD @ 0.8555/60……..Holding Long
-----------------------------------
R: 0.8600 / 0.8620
S: 0.8560 / 0.8530
AUD-USD hit a high of 0.8598 earlier today and has been correcting since then. However, the pair has been finding Support near 0.8550 in the last few hours, which is expected to hold a while longer. A break below that may trigger a fall towards 0.8530, the statistically projected Max Low for the day. On the upside the Resistance is at 0.8600 and then at 0.8620, the statistically projected Max High for the day. The bias for the pair is bullish and we are holding a couple of long positions.

There are two economic data, which would play their hand in the movement in the Aussie during the week. The Australian trade balance and the RBA interest rate are declared tomorrow morning. Rates are likely to be kept unchanged.

See Australia Trade Balance chart at
http://www.kshitij.com/utilities/funcharts/autrbal.shtml.

See RBA Rate and AUD Libor chart at
http://www.kshitij.com/utilities/funcharts/aurba.shtml

Holding:
AUD 20K Long at 0.8538, SL 0.8540, TP 0.8608

Holding:
AUD 20K Long at 0.8569, SL 0.8520, TP 0.8592



Happy Trading!

 

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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