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Wednesday July 4, 2007 - 10:02:52 GMT
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Forex Research - Mellon FX Daily – European Edition

Mellon FX Daily – U.S. Edition 8:05 BST

Key Points
• Weak USD tone being maintained for variety of reasons…
• …but true market will not become evident until later this week/early next week.
• PMI services surveys feature in Eurozone and UK – US on holiday.

Market Outlook

The weak USD tone is being maintained for now, with potential USD buyers probably deterred by several factors. One is the deterioration in the technical outlook as a result of the recent price action. Second, could be the close proximity of tomorrow’s UK MPC and ECB meetings, with the UK expected to raise rates and the ECB likely to maintain a hawkish posture. Finally, there may be some unease about the possibility of terrorist events during today’s US Independence Day holiday given recent events in the UK.

It is not clear that this week’s central banking events will unearth anything new. An MPC rate hike is already well anticipated and more interesting will be any signals sent about the appetite to hike rates in future. However, this is unlikely to be covered in the MPC statement, which typically restricts itself to objectively justifying the immediate decision i.e. it is backward rather than forward looking. Possible revelations about personal attitudes will not be revealed until the minutes are released on July 17. The ECB meeting should be a dull affair. Meetings immediately after rate hikes tend to be nonevents, as they reveal no fresh messages.

A true test of the current market may not appear until Friday or even early next week, although for now one cannot ignore the negative technical developments against the USD (highlighted in yesterday’s Daily). They need to be reversed to nullify current directional risk and will require EUR-USD to move back below 1.3450-85 (below 1.3555 would be a warning sign) and cable to retreat below 2.0130 and preferably 2.00. A quiet day could be in the offing today given that the US is on holiday. Payrolls is still to come on Friday - non-manufacturing ISM tomorrow.

Day Ahead
Eurozone – PMI services data is due although this should merely reflect the solid activity backdrop in the Eurozone, which the market is already well aware of.

UK – PMI services is also due in the UK and any strength or weakness could affect expectations about where the current rate cycle will peak. In recent months the headline PMI services
number has settled in the 57.00-57.60 area, off the peaks of last year but still suggestive of robust growth. There will also be a focus on the ‘prices charged’ component, although this eased back last month to 52.5, the lowest level since February 2006. It will be interesting to see whether that weakness has been sustained.

Q1 mortgage equity withdrawal data is also due today. In Q4 this showed a very sharp jump to £14.6bn from £12.2bn in Q3, with consumers liquidating the wealth accumulated via house price gains. Such developments offer cash flow support for consumer spending. Another solid number looks likely, which would again demonstrate the importance of house prices going forward. Any future slippage would undermine the consumer spending backdrop.

Data/event EDT Consensus*
US Market Holiday
ES PMI services (Jun) 08.15 56.2 last
IT PMI services (Jun) 08.45 56.8
FR PMI services (Jun) 08.50 58.4
DE PMI services (Jun) 08.55 58.0
EU PMI services (Jun) 09.00 58.3
GB PMI services (Jun) 09.30 57.0
GB Mort equity withdrawal (Q1) 09.30 £14.5bn
EU Retail sales (May) m/m 10.00 0.0%
NZ ANZ commodity prices (Jun) m/m 04.00 +2.6% last

Latest data Actual Consensus*
US ABC consumer conf (w/e Jul 1) -7 -12 last
AU RBA rate announcement unch unch
AU Trade balance (May) -A$0.8bn -A$1.2bn
GB HBOS house prices (Jun) m/m +0.4% +0.5%

* Consensus unless stated

©2007, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.


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