Thursday July 5, 2007 - 03:15:37 GMT
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Daily Analysis for EURUSDPrice:
Resistance: 1.3637 ... 1.3658 ... 1.3678 ... 1.3732
Support: 1.3595 ... 1.3567 ... 1.3527 ... 1.3504
Cautiously I look for losses â€“ first support around 1.3567-70 and then at most 1.3480-1.3504
The 1.3637 peak held and we have seen a small pullback and I favor more. To see a more bullish stance we would need a move not only above 1.3637 but also 1.3658-78. If seen then look for gains to resume directly to 1.3760 where I feel a peak should develop for a pullback. Next resistance is then found at 1.3827.
The direct follow-through targets the 1.3760 level but this shouldnâ€™t be seen directly but support around 1.3480-00 should hold for price to make this rally. Major targets for this rally are at 1.3932 & 1.4081. (July 3rd)
While we saw a peak at 1.3637 we havenâ€™t really seen the pullback bite very deeply. I still prefer the downside for a little more but this probably wonâ€™t occur directly. At the moment I can see the current decline moving to the 1.3567-70 area which is likely to cause a small pullback. However, eventually Iâ€™ll look for the downside to extend towards 1.3504 at least and at most 1.3470-81.
Yesterdayâ€™s break higher signals the MT uptrend has already extended and thus only back below 1.3470 would cause concern for a deeper pullback. (July 3rd)
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
The alternative structure mentioned yesterday appears to be developing being an extended Wave (iii). I feel I have counted 5-wave from 1.3371 to 1.3637 but we should allow for the Wave v of that move to extend to a maximum of 1.3653-61. This should be Wave (a) of Wave (iii).
Wave (iii) has a 223.6% projection at 1.3760 and a 261.8% projection at 1.3827. Given the shallow Wave (ii) I suspect we are more likely to see a larger sideways Wave (b) with a 50% pullback (from 1.3637 at least) coming in at 1.3504 and note the 58.6% and pivot support at 1.3471-81.
Following this Wave (b) we should then see a rally to the 1.3760 level at least.
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