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Thursday July 5, 2007 - 10:25:57 GMT
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Forex Research - Mellon FX Daily – U.S. Edition

Mellon FX Daily – U.S. Edition 6:00 EDT

Key Points
• USD weakens further in Europe.
• UK and Eurozone central bank events in focus, but market already looks well priced for likely outcomes.
• USD may yet stabilise, but key levels need to be won back to correct current negative technical bias.
• JPY weakness the recurring theme.
• NZ commodity price surge highlights additional potential support for NZD.
• US ISM non-manufacturing data also features today.

Market Outlook

The market is now waiting to see what comes out of today’s central bank announcements in the UK and the Eurozone, although it seems highly unlikely that overall policy expectations will be changed. See below for previews of both events. To this extent the market should be pretty well priced for such outcomes and if anything the USD may recover later on. The tone of today’s US data releases (see below) will also be significant.

The USD does of course retain a weak technical tone against the EUR and GBP and key levels will need to be won back to eradicate this situation. 1.3555 and 1.3450-85 are key on EURUSD, while 2.0130 and 2.0000 will be significant on cable. The key level for EUR-USD on the topside is the April 27 high at 1.3683. A move and close above there would trigger further USD weakness and the ‘repeat cycle’ analysis discussed in Tuesday’s Daily would become more relevant.

The other common theme is JPY weakness and EUR-JPY has managed to register new fresh highs overnight. Upside risk is now in place as long as 166.80 can hold, with room up towards 168.00-25. The one factor that could frustrate such a move is if EUR-USD starts to pullback, in which case upside would subsequently open up on USD-JPY. A potential mini-trendline at 123.10 is the first resistance level on USD-JPY ahead of recent highs at 123.56 (Jun 29) and 124.14 (Jun 22).

The latest NZ commodity export price index was released earlier today and there was another very sharp m/m rise recorded of 6.1%. The strength in this series over the past six months or so (see chart) shows how well supported the NZD has become by the rise in the price of commodities to which New Zealand is most exposed. Interest rates will continue to be the main driving factor for NZD sentiment and next week’s retail sales data will be significant in determining whether this will continue for another month at least. However, the commodity price backdrop is a developing positive for the NZD and may offer some element of support if domestic demand does start to falter.

Day Ahead
UK – the MPC is broadly expected to raise rates by 25bp today, which would leave the UK repo rate at 5.75%. Only one of the five voting for unchanged rates last month will need to waver to guarantee a rate hike on this occasion and Tucker seems the most likely. The statement that is released with the decision will list the reasons behind the move, although there are unlikely to be any indications about future policy. Statements released with other tightening moves in this cycle have been intentionally dull, avoiding language that could lead the market into speculating about possible nuances and signals in the text. Given King’s recent comments about the need for the MPC to be clearer in terms of what data or factors it is actually focusing on, the style of the presentation may change slightly, although the basic intent of avoiding market speculation will remain. To this extent, the action may not tell the market anything new. The minutes of this meeting (released on July 17) will be more interesting in this regard.

Eurozone – the ECB meetings that follow rate hikes tend to be fairly dull affairs, although this occasion is slightly complicated by the fact that there is no August meeting, so normal signaling procedures may not apply. One way round it would be for Trichet to make it clear from the start that he has no intention of saying anything today that will attempt to change current market expectations for the coming quarter. In other words he will be validating current expectations for a 25bp hike in September and no more than that.

US – the non-manufacturing ISM report is the major highlight, while ADP employment and weekly data on mortgage applications and jobless claims will also be monitored. The non-manufacturing ISM has picked up over the past couple of months, as has the manufacturing version, and a further solid showing looks likely for June.

Data/event EDT Consensus*
ECB meeting outcome 07.45, press conf 08.30 unch
US ADP employment (Jun) 08.15 +95k
US Initial claims (w/e Jul 1) 08.30 315k
US Continuing claims (w/e Jun 23) 08.30 2490k last
CA Building permits (May) m/m 08.30 +5.5%
US ISM non-manu (Jun) 10.00 57.5
CA PMI (Jun, nsa) 10.00 62.0

Latest data Actual Consensus*
NZ ANZ commodity prices (Jun) m/m +6.1% +2.6% last

* Consensus unless stated

©2007, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.


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